An intensification of storms on the surface of the sun in coming years could disrupt satellites, communications and power grids on Earth and endanger astronauts, United States scientists are forecasting.
A new 11-year solar cycle beginning in late 2007 or early 2008 will be between 30% and 50% stronger than the previous one, researchers at the National Centre for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado warned on Monday.
Using unprecedented forecasting techniques, they said the cycle could generate shock waves that disrupt the magnetic field around the Earth, potentially wreaking havoc in electronic networks.
”This prediction of an active solar cycle suggests we’re potentially looking at more communications disruptions, more satellite failures, possible disruptions of electrical grids and blackouts, more dangerous conditions for astronauts,” said Richard Behnke, a space weather expert at the National Science Foundation.
Astronauts in orbit around the Earth are particularly vulnerable to radiation doses generated by the sun storms.
The Colorado scientists developed their forecast using a new computer model of solar dynamics based on an analysis by NCAR scientists of sunspot evolution.
Sunspot development arises from a current of plasma, or electrified gas, circulating between the sun’s equator and poles, NCAR explained in a statement.
The current ”acts like a conveyor belt of sunspots,” and the cyclical flow generates the eleven-year ebb and flow of the storms whose massive flares generate powerful solar winds outward into the solar system.
The NCAR team issued their forecast for the next cycle after their computer model proved 98% accurate in simulating the strength of the last eight solar cycles.
”Our model has demonstrated the necessary skill to be used as a forecasting tool,” said Mausumi Dikpati, the leader of the NCAR forecast team. – Sapa-AFP