The United States ambassador to Baghdad conceded on Tuesday that the Iraq invasion had opened a Pandora’s box of sectarian conflicts which could lead to a regional war and the rise of religious extremists who ”would make Taliban Afghanistan look like child’s play”.
Zalmay Khalilzad broke with the Bush administration’s generally upbeat orthodoxy to present a stark profile of a volatile situation in danger of sliding into chaos.
Khalilzad told the Los Angeles Times Iraq had been pulled back from the brink of civil war after the February 22 bombing of a Shia shrine in Samarra.
However, another similar incident would leave Iraq ”really vulnerable” to that happening, he said. ”We have opened the Pandora’s box and the question is, what is the way forward?” He added that the best approach was to build bridges between religious and ethnic communities.
An opinion poll published by the Washington Post and ABC News on Tuesday suggested that most Americans agreed with Khalilzad — with 80% saying civil war in Iraq was likely, and more than a third that it was very likely. More than half thought the US should start withdrawing its troops, although only one in six wanted all troops to be withdrawn immediately.
Hours after Khalilzad made his remarks, the US Defence Ssecretary, Donald Rumsfeld accused Iran of dispatching elements of its Revolutionary Guard to stir trouble inside Iraq. Rumsfeld said: ”They are currently putting people into Iraq to do things that are harmful to the future of Iraq and we know it. And it is something that they, I think, will look back on as having been an error in judgement.”
Khalilzad’s intervention comes in a week when the two top US generals in Iraq, John Abizaid and George Casey, are in Washington talking to the Pentagon and the White House about how many troops they will need to maintain stability in Iraq. With his remarks, Khalilzad may have been lobbying Washington to keep as many American soldiers there as possible. The Bush administration is anxious to reduce the US military presence for political and military reasons.
Rumsfeld said sectarian violence had been exaggerated by the media. When asked how that squared with Khalilzad’s view, he replied: ”Well, he’s there. He’s an expert. And he said what he said. I happen to have not read it, but I am not going to try to disagree with it.”
Nevertheless, it was clear on Tuesday that the Pentagon was anxious to limit the impact of Khalilzad’s remarks. ”If you take it from a year ago to now, month to month, the attacks now are down compared to last year,” said General Peter Pace, chairperson of the joint chiefs of staff.
Khalilzad suggested the situation was so dangerous that without a substantial US presence, a civil war could suck in other Arab countries on the side of the Sunnis and Iran on the side of the Shias, creating conditions for a regional conflict and disrupting global oil supplies. ”That would make Taliban Afghanistan look like child’s play,” he said.
On Tuesday night Dick Cheney, the US Vice-President, stepped up pressure on Iran over its nuclear ambitions. Cheney told a meeting of the Israeli lobby group, Aipac, ”We will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.” Rumsfeld said there were 132 000 US troops in Iraq. Plans were in place to shrink the presence to about 100 000. Downing Street said on Tuesday no ”strict timetable” had been laid down for British troops to withdraw. A Foreign Office spokesperson said: ”I do not think we would be quite as gloomy as Pandora’s box and civil war.” But if there were further big sectarian attacks, things could get very difficult, he said.
Violence continued on Tuesday, with 16 killed and no sign of a coalition government being formed. Ibrahim al-Jaafari, the Iraqi prime minister and compromise candidate of the Shia parties, said he would not be blackmailed into quitting.
A new video has been broadcast showing kidnapped British peace activist Norman Kember (74) and two Canadian colleagues. The fourth, an American, was not shown. Bruce Kent, a friend of Kember’s, said: ”My hopes have gone up considerably. I am very pleased that there is a picture of him only a week ago.” – Guardian Unlimited Â