Iran is due to give its reply on Tuesday to a package backed by six world powers that aims to end a nuclear stand-off with the West and Iranian officials say Iran does not accept the key demand to suspend uranium enrichment.
Refusing to suspend the work that has both military and civilian uses would be tantamount to rejecting the package of incentives offered in return, Western diplomats say.
But refusal would not yet trigger action by the United Nations Security Council, which passed a resolution last month giving Iran until August 31 to halt enrichment or face possible sanctions.
”We are not treating [Tuesday] as a deadline because it is not the Security Council deadline,” one Western diplomat said. ”If Iran flatly refuses to suspend enrichment, then there will, fairly soon, be more talks in the Security Council.”
The United States, France, Britain, Germany, China and Russia offered a package of economic and other incentives in June, aiming to persuade the Islamic Republic to stop work that the West says is helping build nuclear warheads.
Iran, which has denounced the deadline as illegal and worthless, said it would reply by the end of the Iranian month of Mordad, August 22. The world’s fourth largest oil exporter insists it will not abandon what it calls its right to enrich uranium for use in nuclear power stations.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khomenei, who has the final word in Iran, vowed on Monday that Iran would not be deflected from its pursuit of nuclear energy. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has also been a vociferous opponent of compromise.
Other Iranian officials have stated plainly that Iran will not stop enrichment.
‘Multi-dimensional’ response
A senior Iranian official said Iran would give a written response to the package, either handing it to EU ambassadors in Tehran or more likely delivering it in Brussels to Javier Solana, the European Union’s foreign policy chief.
Iran has said its reply will be ”multi-dimensional”, suggesting no simple ‘yes’ or ‘no’. Officials have also said Iran wants more talks to resolve the dispute.
Such an approach, say diplomats, could further expose divisions in the Security Council where the United States, France and Britain back sanctions but Russia and China, the other two veto-wielding members, have been wary of such a move.
”If they reject suspension, that’s rejection of the package [for Western capitals],” said another Western diplomat. He added that Russia and China might take a different view.
”If they said suspension was negotiable, there would be pressure on [the six powers] to think about it,” the diplomat said.
In the countdown to the deadline, tensions have risen between Tehran and the watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), diplomats familiar with IAEA operations say.
One diplomat said Tehran created ”some difficulties” for IAEA inspectors visiting Iran last week to prepare for an August 31 report to the Security Council. Another said inspectors were denied access to the partially built underground section of Iran’s Natanz nuclear fuel plant. Iran denied hindering access.
Analysts say Iran is probably calculating that any move towards sanctions would start with modest steps, such as travel bans on officials or asset freezes, which it could tolerate because the country’s coffers are brimming with petrodollars.
US President George Bush said on Monday the international community should ”work in concert” over Iran. Washington has previously warned of swift UN action if Iran fails to meet UN demands.
United States says it wants a diplomatic solution to the stand-off but has refused to rule out military action. – Reuters