I have found myself drowning in a crime wave. It happened suddenly, without me moving neighbourhoods, frequenting dodgy areas or buying more expensive, more desirable belongings.
There is only one change in my circumstances of which I am aware. When Radio 702 moved to a stronger, FM frequency, I started listening to it. Crime is a big story, reminiscent of the hysteria of the early post-1994 period, on 702.
“This would really be a great place,” is the refrain on 702, “if only something could be done about the crime”.
Just a short distance up the radio spectrum at SAfm I have no sense of the same crisis.
My impression is that crime was generally headed in the right direction and that, in preparation for 2010, the government was putting new energy into further improving this trend.
Perhaps luckily, I have hardly been affected by crime in the past decade. My backpack was stolen once and I was mugged getting on to a train. The first incident was in Boston and the second in Barcelona.
But having said that I am of course aware that South Africa is a relatively high crime environment and that violent crimes, such as hijackings and armed robberies, are too frequent for comfort.
Just how bad is crime in South Africa? Not too many years ago I compared the murder rate per 100 000 people in London with that of the northern suburbs Parkview police district in Johannesburg, also home to 100 000 people. The numbers were not dissimilar.
Johannesburg is, of course, not as safe as London, but perhaps the truth is a little more complicated than what may at first appear to be the case.
I could turn to police figures to try and tease out hysteria from reality, but few believe police figures, so I visited the websites of South Africa’s three largest short-term insurers.
These companies, Santam, SA Eagle and Mutual & Federal, collectively insure many billions of South African assets. Their results would surely reflect a crime wave if such a thing was happening.
Crime is definitely one of the challenges this industry faces and it rates a mention by all three companies in their latest results.
But it is clear that it is not the greatest problem it has to deal with and generally appears ranked below the weather, car accidents and the cost of repairing imported vehicles as the key challenges faced by the industry.
I had the impression talking to Mutual & Federal risk expert Ian Jurgens, who says that claims resulting from car accidents have increased from one in five to one in four, that I was more likely to come to an untimely end as a result of an accident than a hijack.
Of every R100 Mutual & Federal pays out in motor related claims, theft accounts for between R20 and R25, with R65 to R75 going to vehicle repairs and the balance to replacing stolen radios and repairing windscreens.
Accident claims are increasing as more and more cars use the roads and new drivers are licensed.
The industry likewise finds the cost of fixing imported cars to be an increasing challenge, it making sense to check the local content ratio before buying a new car.
Santam chief executive Steffen Gilbert says accident claims are increasing as the vehicle park grows. He says there are more unroadworthy vehicles on the road as well as faster cars with less experienced drivers. “There is more chance of being involved in an accident,” he says, adding, “we don’t drive too well.”
Gilbert says crime is a large issue and not just in terms of the numbers. He says while we can live with changing weather patterns and drive more carefully, violent crimes such as hijackings are a societal problem that are difficult to live with.
He says crime in South Africa is at much higher levels than in developed countries, but compares with developing countries such as Brazil and Mexico.
Like other industry spokespeople, Gilbert confirms that hijackings have shown a decline over the past number of years, but that this came to an abrupt halt earlier this year.
An upward trend in hijackings, several industry sources confirm, earlier this year, coincided with the strike by security guards.
A sophisticated industry has grown in response to car theft, the two market leaders Tracker and Netstar now having 760 000 cars covered by their networks. Netstar says its recovery is up to nine out of 10 vehicles in an average time of 47 minutes.
Tracker’s Gareth Crocker says hijackings have come down significantly in recent years. In 1999, 54% of all activations by Tracker clients, meaning the reporting of a car theft, were hijackings. This fell consistently to 33% last year.
Crocker says the number of activations recorded by Tracker was about the same this August compared to the previous August, even though the company has grown its subscriber base by 54 000 to 384 000 during this period.
Tracker has been involved in 6 220 arrests during the past 10 years, uncovering 163 chop shops and 109 car theft syndicates.
Car thieves are at high risk of arrest once they have stolen a car with a tracing device. Crocker says often one thief will drive while the other will strip the car, searching for the tracking device.
Alternatively, they park the car in a public space and monitor it for several days to see if it has been traced.