A bitter struggle over who will succeed Thabo Mbeki as president has forced the governing African National Congress to confront dissent openly and defend its policies from attacks by its own rank and file.
Former deputy president Jacob Zuma, who was fired by Mbeki when it became clear he would have to stand trial on corruption charges, has escalated the succession battle by campaigning openly and vigorously to become the next president.
Zuma contends the charges themselves are the result of a political conspiracy by forces within the ANC to derail his candidacy. A judge said he will rule on Wednesday on a prosecution request to delay the trial, possibly until early next year. The defence has asked that the judge order the state to proceed immediately or dismiss the current indictment.
The outcome of his trial could go a long way toward deciding who will be the next president even though Mbeki still has two and a half years left in his final term.
”An acquittal would give Zuma and enormous boost. It would be an enormous vindication,” Susan Brown, a political analyst with South Africa’s Institute for Peace and Reconciliation, said on Monday.
The succession battle has been portrayed in the South African press as a fight for the heart and soul of the governing party even though no one has proposed or recommended major policy shifts for the ANC government.
Mbeki and the old guard of the ANC are seen in South Africa as appealing to pro-business interests and the new black elite who have prospered under the government’s black economic empowerment schemes. Zuma appeals to ANC traditionalists, populists and urban and rural poor who increasingly feel left out of development planning and delivery.
Analysts say investors and businessmen are nervous about Zuma because his major support comes from unions, the South African Communist Party and the leftist ANC Youth League.
While Zuma has said he supports the government’s economic policy, his major supporters portray him as a man of the people who as president would give government back to the people.
Cheryl Hendricks of the Institute for Security Studies recently wrote that the succession debate highlights the need for a public discussion on how future presidents are elected.
”The ANC has retained its liberation movement modus operandi in which secrecy, discipline, internal unity and collective leadership are the guiding principles,” she wrote.
”It is now confronted with a situation in which there is a competition for power that has spilled over into the public domain. The ANC appears to be caught off guard by these tactics.”
Steven Friedman, a senior research fellow with the Centre for Policy Studies in Johannesburg, said Mbeki and the ANC’s leadership style are the key issues.
”ANC leadership over the past few years has been from the top down and it is hostile to anyone who disagrees,” said Friedman.
”The primary reason why people are upset is the leadership style. They don’t like it. They think it does not include people and they want it changed.”
The ANC denies there is any succession battle and contends the whole issue will be dealt with when the party makes its nomination at its congress in December 2007.
Brown said she believes the succession battle is not so much a fight for the soul of the party as it is a changing of the guard, a new generation ready to assume control.
”It is a turning point, a changing of the guard. A lot of the ways that the ANC did things when it was in exile are being challenged,” Brown.
What is changing in the ANC, she said, is the belief that party business can’t be spoken about or challenged publicly.
Zuma is the only candidate campaigning openly for the nomination. Most of the battle is being fought behind the scenes.
Mbeki has suggested that the candidate could be a woman, a clear indication he does not support Zuma’s bid.
Others identified by the South African press as likely contenders are ANC general secretary Kgalema Motlanthe, Finance Minister Trevor Manuel, Defence Minister Mosioua Lekota and Cyril Ramaphosa, a businessman and former union leader who headed the efforts to draft South Africa’s constitution.
”If anyone made their ambitions known now they would be savaged.
I don’t think anyone will openly campaign for at least a year,” said Friedman.
But while the fight for the nomination has remained mostly behind closed doors, Friedman said the battle itself has changed the face of South Africa’s fledgling democracy, forcing the ANC to open public debate, confront dissent and listen to demands.
”For the first time we have parliamentary committees challenging ministers. There is more public debate about issues,” he said. – Sapa-AP