South Africa recorded a deficit of R5,284-billion for its trade with non-Southern African Customs Union trading partners in August after a record deficit of R7,746-billion in July, according to Customs & Excise figures released on Friday.
The trade balance was expected to have narrowed to a R5-billion deficit in August, a survey of 10 economists by I-Net Bridge found.
Forecasts ranged from just a R2-billion deficit to a R6,6-billion deficit.
George Glynos, a market analyst at ETM said it was another disappointing figure.
“It emphasises the fact that structural imbalances remain in play. Not only does this mean that the rand will remain under pressure, but is another set of data that confirms that the South African Reserve Bank will have to raise rates.”
Dawie Roodt, the chief economist at the Efficient Group said: “It’s neither here nor there because it’s always such a volatile number — sure, it’s a little better but the deficit is still huge. The market could react a little, but quite honestly, it doesn’t mean much.”
Mike Schussler, an economist at T-Sec, said they had expected deficit of R6-billion.
“But 5,2-billion is still a big deficit and not a lot smaller than July. I don’t think its going to have a major effect on the bond and currency market, but we need to see a much smaller deficit in the next few months.” – I-Net Bridge