/ 6 November 2006

The future of the DRC

The second round of elections took place last week. Results have begun trickling in, but an official announcement is not expected for some time. Stephanie Wolters speaks to party representatives Olivier Kamitatu and Moise Musangana about the way forward.

‘We will be the first to accept the result’

What is your assessment of how the elections went?

The elections went well, with a few exceptions, notably in Equateur province. We think the observers who were deployed and the witnesses which each party was able to put in the 50 000 polling stations helped. We are waiting for the results, but so far we have not established any irregularities or incidents of fraud.

Does this mean that you are going to accept the outcome of the election — whatever it may be?

We will be the first to accept the results. To this end, Kabila has already firmly committed himself to accepting the outcome of the popular vote.

There were discussions prior to the vote that both candidates should commit themselves to accepting defeat, but there was also some talk of an amnesty for the loser. How does Kabila stand on this?

The president gave his personal commitment. However, he remains concerned about the constitutional aspects of an amnesty. The status of the opposition will be respected, but questions of immunity are the purview of Parliament. Personally, he has committed himself to refraining from causing any danger, either physical or material, or from infringing the freedom of the loser.

What would a Kabila government look like?

The AMP already has a parliamentary majority, with more than 280 deputies out of 500. This includes members of the Parti Lumumbiste Unifie (Palu) as well as the party of Nzanga Mobutu, with whom Kabila has signed an accord, so the parliamentary majority cannot be contested. Even if Kabila loses, which I doubt, the AMP will still have to be consulted. According to the signed accord, Palu will designate the prime minister.

Since we constitute the parliamentary majority, we are not obliged to engage in political discussions with other parties. The Congolese people expressed themselves in the parliamentary elections. Why circumvent their vote to form alliances in the government?

What are the priorities of the Kabila government?

The absolute priority is the consoli­dation of peace through the acceleration of the integration of the army and police. The second priority is the restoration of state authority through judicial reform and the re-establishment of judicial guarantees, as well as the reform of the civil service. All this must happen at the same time as a restoration of confidence in the DRC to allow investment to return.

How will Kabila deal with on­going activities of armed groups in the eastern part of the country, should he win?

We must maintain good relations with our neighbours so that these armed groups are not allowed to use rear bases in those countries from which to organise and attack us. Kabila has started a process that should very quickly initiate an exchange of ambassadors with Rwanda and Uganda. It is also on a national level, a joint action with [United Nations mission] Monuc, and lastly we must engage in dialogue to address the real problems of the east.

Moise Musangana is the spokesperson for the Union pour la Nation, the MLC-­dominated coalition. Prior to that he was the managing editor of Le Potentiel, the DRC’s main opposition newspaper

What is your assessment of the elections?

The elections took place in good conditions, we did not have any major incidents. Up to now there have not been any cases of fraud or cheating. Now that the ballots are being brought to the compilation centres, there might be attempts at cheating like last time. But we have witnesses there and they are doing their jobs.

If you do detect incidents of fraud, what will you do?

We will voice our dissatisfaction politically, but there are also legal avenues we can and will use.

Is Bemba committed to giving up peacefully if he does not win?

That question has always been asked of Bemba and not of Kabila, even though, the first time, Kabila screamed from the rooftops that he would win the first round, but we saw that the results were something else. So we can ask the same question of Kabila this time.

I think the Congolese people know what side the violence is on because we saw what happened those three days in Kinshasa, the 20th, 21st and 22nd of August. The violence did not come from the Bemba side, as many people expected. The violence came from the camp from which one expected it the least.

Bemba has never stopped saying that he is a democrat and that, if transparency has been observed and if the results indicate that he did not win, he will become a political opponent.

What will be Bemba’s priorities for a new government?

Justice, security and development are the biggest priorities. I think there is a lot to be done on the security front, because there are many corners of the country where there is not yet any security. This does not allow people to work or the investors to come and invest their capital, so security is very important, which Bemba will tackle as a priority.

With regard to ongoing insecurity in the east, he has always said that he will try to reach out to all the forces and the armed groups in the country, especially in the eastern part of the country, and if these groups do not accept this, he will be obliged to use force.

There is also the army, which is an issue on which we must place much more emphasis in order to have a national army. The military integration process was not completed during the three years of the transition, so we have to complete this process as soon as possible in order to ensure security.

What would a Bemba government look like?

Bemba is for a government of national unity. He is ready to work with the AMP because he feels that, at the end of this transition period, reconciliation has not been achieved as it was envisaged by the peace accords. One must now achieve that reconciliation.

So at least the significant forces, those who governed yesterday and even those who did not, like the UDPS [the opposition party that boycotted the process], should be approached to join the government.

Today there is the AMP that has a majority in Parliament, but Bemba has said that, if he wins, he thinks this alliance will be reconstituted. These alliances have no political ideology; these alliances are based on basically nothing. These are alliances that are about apportioning power, so, knowing the Congolese political class, it is enough that Kabila is not president for this alliance to break up.

Where things stand

Provisions have been made to contain potential violence around the second round of presidential elections, especially in the capital Kinshasa, where 20 people were killed in August during fighting between the rival factions loyal to President Joseph Kabila and Vice-President Jean-Pierre Bemba.

Kinshasa has been declared a weapons-free zone, and rival armed forces have been partially cantoned, while both the European Union Force (Eufor) and the United Nations Peacekeeping Mission in the DRC (Monuc) have increased their troop presence there.

International efforts to get the candidates to commit to accepting the outcome of the second round culminated in the signing of an accord to that effect between Kabila and Bemba just days before the election on October 29.

The agreement stopped short of including provisions for amnesty for crimes — economic or otherwise — committed during the war as originally proposed; Kabila rejected this option on the grounds that only Parliament can grant such an amnesty.

Days after the relatively peaceful holding of elections, tensions between the two camps remain high.

Initial election results indicate that the vote could be close, and that regional trends mirror those set in the first round of elections, with Kabila dominating the eastern provinces of North and South Kivu, Maniema and Orientale, where he is seen as a hero who ended Rwandan and Ugandan occupation, as well as in his native Katanga province.

Support for Bemba remains firm in the west, especially in his home province of Equateur, Bas-Congo and Bandundu provinces, and the city of Kinshasa. Kasai Orientale and Kasai Occidental provinces, strongholds of the UDPS, which boycotted the election, will likely determine the outcome.

Even if Kabila does lose the presidential election — a scenario most analysts consider unlikely — he will maintain considerable influence in a new government. His party, the People’s Party for Reconstruction and Development (PPRD), won the most seats in parliament and his subsequent alliance with the opposition United Lumumbist Party (Palu), Nzanga Mobutu’s party and several smaller parties under the AMP has given his faction a clear majority of 280 seats in Parliament, allowing it to nominate the prime minister whose function it is to appoint the Cabinet. — M&G reporter