The Republicans were deploying their legendary machine on Monday night to rouse the faithful and drive up turnout for midterm elections on Tuesday, with activists buoyed by polls suggesting the party had recovered some lost ground in the final hours of the campaign.
In a contest that will help write the legacy of United States President George Bush — as well as that of the man called his brain, the political strategist Karl Rove — thousands of party activists fanned out to battleground states, immersed in a $30-million drive to retain Republican control of Congress.
For Bush, Monday was also a day of constant motion, with election stops in Florida, Arkansas and Texas to energise party loyalists discouraged by the continuing violence in Iraq, the spiralling budget deficit and a spate of sex scandals.
But there was a last-minute reminder of the president’s faltering appeal when a candidate from his own party decided not to show up alongside Bush at a planned rally in Florida. Charlie Crist, standing for governor, made a speech hundreds of miles away instead.
Bush had one new weapon in his armoury: the announcement that Saddam Hussein had been found guilty of crimes against humanity reaffirmed his national security agenda.
Republican party officials drew heart from three polls in the last 48 hours showing that they were gaining ground on the Democrats. Analysts on Monday continued to predict that the Democrats would win at least 15 seats in the House of Representatives — the number they would need to take control. But races for Republican Senate seats in Missouri, Virginia, and Montana and Rhode Island were in a dead heat, and the race for Democratic-held Maryland was also tight.
A USA Today/Gallup poll published on Monday gave the Democrats a seven point edge, leading the Republicans by 51% to 44%. But that was down from a 13-point margin two weeks ago. The poll also showed Democrats struggling to win all six seats they need to take control of the Senate.
A poll from the Pew Research Centre for the People and the Press on Sunday showed a steeper erosion in the Democratic lead, with the party polling 47% and the Republicans 43% among likely voters, compared to an 11-point gap two weeks ago. And an ABC/Washington Post poll showed Republicans cutting into the 14-point lead the Democrats held two weeks ago, reducing their advantage to six points. ”It is coming back to reality: what you might expect to see on election night if you look at recent congressional history. It more accurately reflects the jousting we have seen between Republicans and Democrats,” said Rhodes Cook, who publishes an independent political newsletter in Washington.
But a Fox news poll released on Monday found 49% of likely voters favouring Democratic candidates in house races, and 36% preferring Republicans.
A weekend poll in Time magazine showed the Democrats maintaining their advantage, while Newsweek had the party pulling even further ahead, with 53% wanting the Democrats to capture one or both houses of Congress, and 32% supporting continued Republican control.
Carroll Doherty, from the Pew Centre, said the polls suggested two late developments: a shift in independent voters to the Republicans and the re-engagement of Republican voters.
”The Republicans to some degree are coming home — not that there was a question of them voting Democrat, … and now you see the Republicans becoming more engaged, and … focus more on the elections,” Doherty said. – Guardian Unlimited Â