Widespread insecurity in eastern Chad is putting a severe strain on humanitarian operations, with rebel activity rendering large parts of the terrain impassable. Aid workers were already struggling to cope with 230 000 refugees as well as 90 000 internally displaced Chadians, when rebels stepped up their offensives in the area two weeks ago.
When the town of Abeche, a hub for hundreds of aid workers, was attacked late last month, widespread looting saw 480 tonnes of food aid stolen, as well as significant quantities of blankets, tents and plastic sheeting. One week later, when rebels took the nearby town of Guereda, United Nations staff members were held at gunpoint when their compound was overrun by armed men.
Aid workers have now began evacuating in earnest. A total of 300 humanitarians have already been pulled back from the field amid fears that the violence will continue.
”The security situation continues to be very unpredictable,” said Ann Maymann, a public information officer for the UN refugee agency, UNHCR. ”Should security deteriorate further, and humanitarian access is impeded further, there is a possibility that the well-being and security of refugees and displaced Chadians could markedly deteriorate, with very dire consequences.”
Meanwhile, the rest of the country also remains rife with instability — as does the capital N’Djamena, where tanks and roadblocks have become part of everyday life. Vehicles leaving or entering the capital are routinely searched by soldiers, and tanks have been seen parked outside the presidential palace and key government buildings during security scares.
Last month the Chadian Parliament voted by a massive majority to extend the country’s state of emergency imposed by President Idriss Deby’s Cabinet in the wake of inter-ethnic violence in eastern Chad. The sanction means that for the next six months, all Chad’s press, radio and television will be censored.
The media is aghast.
”Before this incident, freedom of press in Chad was considered by our peers in the rest of Africa as something to celebrate,” said Abdelnasser Garboa, editor of the independent newspaper L’Observateur.
”Everyone knew the Chadian press was one of the most independent in Africa. We touched on subjects journalists in other places couldn’t. But now democracy is vanishing — maybe we will return to a dictatorship.”
Deby’s opponents also believe the president may have had ulterior motives in wanting the state of emergency introduced.
”The main reason this has been imposed is to prevent the press in N’Djamena from publishing information,” Ngarlejy Yorongar, a member of Chad’s opposition, told the M&G.
”The government does not control all of Chad’s territory — it only really controls the capital — so it doesn’t want the press to report this. It’s also about preventing political parties and civil societies from doing their work. For example, it’s forbidden for us to hold public meetings or rallies.”
The role of the French, Chad’s former colonial power, in the country’s recent instability is also rather intriguing. France was heavily criticised for its support of the Chadian army when rebels attacked the capital back in April of this year — coming under particular scrutiny for a controversial ”warning shot” a French warplane fired near a column of rebel vehicles.
In recent weeks, though, France’s support has been far less visible; when Abeche — generally considered to be Chad’s second most important city from a national security perspective — fell to rebels, the silence from the French, both in Chad and in Paris, was deafening.
A visit to N’Djamena by French Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin last week helped restore some confidence, but analysts say French support for Deby could be waning.
France recently sent in a new ambassador to Chad, and President Jacques Chirac — a long-standing ally of Deby — is expected to step down at the spring 2007 elections: both are signs that Paris may be ready to take a new direction.
The French are still protecting their interests, though, and recently sent an extra 100 troops to Chad to deal with the growing insecurity.
Meanwhile, the rebels continue to inflict losses on the Chadian Army but remain an elusive force. Their strategy so far appears to be to take towns, pillage the army’s weapons caches, declare victory, and then retreat within 24 hours.
But without successfully holding towns they have captured, observers say they have yet to prove they have the capacity to eventually march on towards the capital.
Chad’s rebellion can be roughly divided into two camps: the Union of Forces for Democracy and Development, led by Mahamat Nouri, who defected from his post as ambassador to Saudi Arabia four months ago, and a rather haphazard coalition of several rebel groups including the Rally for Democratic Forces — led by Tom and Timan Erdimi, Deby’s own uncles and members of his Zaghawa clan — and elements of FUC, who attacked N’Djamena in April.
Until very recently, the two main rebel movements have acted entirely alone, but now there are strong signs they may be collaborating. Analysts say that if the various rebel groups can put aside their ethnic and political differences to pull together, they stand a much greater chance of overthrowing the regime in N’Djamena.