Whoever wants to be the next president of the African National Congress will probably have to go through president Thabo Mbeki, who has been asked by the party’s most influential province to guide the 95-year-old ANC towards its centenary years.
Senior members of the Eastern Cape provincial executive committee (PEC) of the ANC are convinced that this ‘son of the soil will never say no to a mandate by the ANCâ€. An Eastern Cape member of the ANC’s national executive committee said: ‘It will not be tough convincing Mbeki to stand again as ANC president despite the fact that he is an unpredictable person —â€
This week, members of the PEC who spoke to the Mail & Guardian hinted that a delegation from the province would soon ask Mbeki if he would be available for the job.
Eastern Cape provincial secretary Siphato Handi said Mbeki’s candidacy would be at the heart of discussions at the two-day provincial lekgotla at the end of this month. Mbeki is prohibited by the South African Constitution from seeking a third term in government but the ANC’s constitution is silent on the number of terms a party leader can serve in office. Mbeki’s mentor, Oliver Tambo, held the fort for three decades.
But why would Mbeki consider staying at the helm of Africa’s oldest liberation movement?
Firstly, he makes clear his commitment to the ANC and the struggle. ‘I was born into the struggle,†he once said.
A member of the Eastern Cape executive committee said: ‘As the son of ANC stalwart Govan Mbeki and a protégé of the great OR Tambo, Mbeki would not like to leave the ANC in tatters, weakened by dysfunctional branches.â€
Having devoted his two terms in office to the geopolitics of the African continent and the economic affairs of the world, Mbeki would like another chance to transform the ANC from a liberation movement into a sophisticated ruling party in charge of a world-class economy.
Secondly, Mbeki’s grip on party power would be his only means of putting an end to the controversial tradition that automatically renders the leader of the ANC the head of state.
Mbeki hopes to prove that the two offices — ANC president and state president — can co-exist harmoniously, debunking claims that this would create two centres of power.
It is also no secret that Mbeki’s preferred candidates for the presidency of the country — Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka, Cyril Ramaphosa, Trevor Manuel, Terror Lekota and Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma — stand little chance in a toe-to-toe face-off against Jacob Zuma. So for Mbeki to elect the guardian of his legacy, he has to win ’round one†of the succession battle by squaring up to and defeating Zuma come December 2007.
Thirdly, Mbeki believes the country is ready for its first female president, and taking a third term as party president would ensure that he would be able to influence the appointment of his successor and shield the guardian of his legacy from the venom of African traditionalists within the ANC and the broad alliance, who may be opposed to the idea of a woman as president.
With the clear backing of the Eastern Cape, Mbeki is a strong candidate who is expected to rely on the support of the Western Cape, Limpopo, North West and Gauteng.
Political commentator William Mervin Gumede said the provinces would be very important in deciding the next president during the conference. ‘Every province counts, no matter how small. Therefore there is going to be a frantic scramble to win over the smaller provinces such as Mpumalanga, Western Cape and Northern Cape — This is even more important since the big provinces, such as KZN and Eastern Cape, are not united behind one candidate.â€
Gumede outlines his picture of provincial allegiances: ‘Gauteng and North West are definitely behind Mbeki. The Western Cape is now more and more behind Mbeki, after they were split in the past between Zuma and Mbeki.
‘The Northern Cape is definitely behind Mbeki. Although the National Union of Mineworkers — is very strong in the province, and Zuma could potentially mobilise them to help campaign.
‘Mpumalanga is still split between Mbeki and Zuma, although Mbeki currently has the edge, because the premier is an Mbeki-ite and has been mobilising. Zuma has a lot of support in Mpumalanga, especially among the youth, Communist Party and the traditional leaders who have been very disgruntled there for many years.
‘The Free State appears to be split. Although again there is a strong NUM presence there — Northern Province is also split, I think, although the widespread poverty and very rural population in the province could be exploited by Zuma, who really operates best in the context of rural dwellers and the more traditionally orientated.
‘KZN at this moment is definitely pro-Zuma. S’bu Ndebele’s public conversion under pressure to the Zuma camp is an indication [of this trend]. Ndebele in his heart of hearts is not really a Zuma supporter, and if it comes to a secret ballot I’m sure he would vote for Mbeki — even in his sleep,†said Gumede.