This week’s budget indicates that some progress has been made in re-aligning the posture and make-up of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) and leaving behind some of the fiscal drag associated with the conventional force design of the 1998 Defence Review and the Strategic Defence Procurement programme.
But for now, a greater emphasis on peacekeeping, modernising the army, attracting and retaining scarce skills and recruiting new blood should start to filter through.
For now the cost of the arms deal still accounts for the largest slice of the department of defence budget. The Special Defence Account programme remains the largest programme in 2007/08, consuming 34,8% of the department’s total expenditure.
Delivery of the weapon systems is largely on track, although the Hawk trainers are behind schedule. Four frigates will be commissioned into the navy by the end of 2007, but they will be fully operational only once the maritime helicopters have been delivered.
The first of three submarines, 12 of 30 light utility helicopters and 11 of 24 trainer aircraft are already in service and delivery of one submarine, 12 light utility helicopters and eight trainer aircraft will follow in 2007/08.
Although the annual bill for arms acquisition was due to decline in the next three years as the arms deal is paid off, a new tranche of payments is coming up for the controversial A400M military transport acquisition that was agreed in 2005.
The budget review notes: “Anticipated expenditure on a strategic airlift capability will result in large initial increases in the Special Defence Account programme and a gradual decrease from 2009/10 onwards.”
The Airbus military transport acquisition, for which no tender was called, has been allocated R577-million in 2007/08, R1,5-billion in 2008/09 and R1,9-billion in 2009/10, with no indication of the final cost of the eight aircraft that were initially expected to each cost about R1-billion.
Budget documents reveal that there are plans to rationalise a number of overlapping functions between the defence secretariat and the SANDF itself. The defence department will continue its focus on stability and security in Africa.
The budget review notes: “The SANDF continues to participate in peace support operations in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Burundi, Côte d’Ivoire and Sudan, and is expected to contribute to post-conflict reconstruction activities … Military observers and staff officers continue to serve at United Nations missions in Eritrea, Ethiopia/Somalia and Liberia. The deployment of more than 3 000 members in external peace support missions … will continue over the medium term.”
In his budget speech Manuel let slip the possibility of new deployments, saying: “I’m told there will be new ones in the near future,” suggesting that South Africa may bow to pressure to supply troops for peacekeeping in Somalia.
It appears that efforts to attract new blood and retire old soldiers are bearing fruit. According to the budget review, 43% of regular force privates are in the required age bracket of 18 to 24 years, up from only 7% in 2002.
The outflow of skilled technical personnel and engineers from the South African Air Force continues, however, though it is hoped an incentive scheme, introduced in June 2006, will mitigate this loss. Still, the air force seems to be trying to maintain standards. Budget documents reveal that only 26 out of 42 candidate students qualified as pilots.