Officially no one is a candidate and there is not even a campaign, but in reality the contest to become the next South African president is well under way ahead of a crucial vote in December.
The African National Congress (ANC), which has had a stranglehold on power since the introduction of multiracial democracy in 1994, meets in the northern Limpopo province at the end of year to choose the person expected to lead the party into the 2009 general elections.
But the choice of the man, or woman, who hopes to follow in the footsteps of Nelson Mandela and current President Thabo Mbeki is already a subject of fevered debate both within the media and behind the ANC’s closed doors.
Much of the debate swirls round controversial former vice-president Jacob Zuma, who has retained his post as ANC deputy leader after being acquitted first of rape and then seeing corruption charges shelved.
Like the other hopefuls, Zuma has been bending over backwards to insist he is not an active candidate — merely someone who is prepared to serve his party in whatever role it deems necessary.
But few are in any doubt about the ambitions of a man who has been holding fund-raising dinners since 2005 and who spent last weekend on a carefully choreographed trip to meet white farmers in a bid to deflect accusations his support is too heavily concentrated among his fellow Zulus.
While his aides insisted a visit to one crime-hit farming family was private, reporters were on hand to hear him fulminate on how ”we have to do something more” to combat crime, the number one concern of the public.
He even underwent a public Aids test, a bold move for someone who admitted having unprotected sex with an HIV-positive woman during the course of his rape trial.
Aside from Zuma, other names that have been bandied about include ANC secretary general Kgalema Motlanthe and politicians-turned businessmen Tokyo Sexwale and Cyril Ramaphosa, who have retained senior posts in the ANC.
Sexwale, former premier of the country’s second-most populous Gauteng province, has also been coy about his intentions but he gave an eyebrow-raising interview recently to a financial magazine in which he spoke about his charity work and vision of leadership.
”The level of debate in the public domain about who should become the ANC president is unprecedented,” said Aubrey Matshiqi, of Johannesburg’s Centre of Political Studies.
But Matshiqi said that the debate was being conducted ”not because of the ANC, but despite of the ANC”.
”It’s a good sign, but there are limitations in this debate. This debate in the public domain would be more meaningful if it was in the context of a direct presidential election.”
The ANC’s dominance means that whoever is elected by the party as its leader will almost definitely become head of state.
Paul Graham, director of the Institute for Democracy in South Africa, said it was no use complaining about a system that was laid out in the post-apartheid Constitution that was adopted in 1996.
”That’s a choice we made in 1996. If South Africans do not like that way of doing things, the debate is then about whether they want to change the Constitution.”
The list of candidates is far from closed and other outsiders have attracted significant backing.
Winnie Madikazela-Mandela, the former wife of the first black president Nelson Mandela, let it be known recently that she would like to see Foreign Minister Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma become the country’s first woman leader.
Mbeki may have held back from endorsing anyone but he has also gone on record as saying he would like to see a first female head of state.
While he cannot stand for a third term as head of state, Mbeki has not ruled out standing once more for the leadership of the ANC.
His distrust of Zuma is a badly kept secret and Mbeki does not savour the prospect having the party being led by his rival during his last two years in office.
There is much speculation as well as to whether the widely revered Mandela, who stood down as president in 1999, will give his endorsement to anyone, although some have cautioned that his influence should not be overestimated.
”It would be a mistake for people to overstate his role and to personalise it in some way,” added Graham.
”There are many other critical factors and individuals which will influence the debate.” — AFP
