The increase in South Africa’s consumer price index excluding mortgage-rate changes (CPIX) for metro and other areas, which is used by the South African Reserve Bank for its inflation target, was at 6,4% year-on-year (y/y) in June, the same as in May, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Wednesday.
CPIX was up 0,5% month-on-month (m/m) after it increased 0,6% m/m in May.
Headline consumer prices — the 12-month rate of change in the consumer price index (CPI) for metropolitan areas — was up 7% y/y in June from a 6,9% y/y increase in May.
The core inflation rate, which excludes volatile foods, municipal rates and monetary policy changes, was up 5,7% y/y in June from 6% y/y in May.
CPIX was expected to have receded slightly to 6.3% year-on-year (y/y) in June, an I-Net Bridge survey found, with forecasts ranging from 6,3% y/y to 6.5% y/y.
CPI was expected to have increased marginally to 7% y/y with forecasts ranging from 6,7% to 7.2%.
Mike Schussler, economist at T-Sec, said: “We were expecting the 6,4% y/y increase in CPIX. We are heading for a situation where we have higher inflation for longer. We are also seeing supplier constraints starting to impact on the economy. We could see yields go up on bonds, which will not be too positive for the JSE in the longer-term.”
According to Danelee van Dyk, an economist at Standard Bank: “It’s generally in line with expectations but still above the upper limit of the Reserve Bank’s inflation targeting band for the third consecutive month. With high food and petrol prices we believe that the Reserve Bank is likely to hike interest rates next month to allay further inflationary pressures.”
“CPIX was in line with our expectations and CPI was exactly what we expected, which is just because of the food and fuel,” said Markus Ridle, an economist at Absa. “These numbers are the same as the previous level, which is not going to surprise the Reserve Bank. I think a combination of factors will be taken in for the MPC meeting on the 15th and 16th of August — tomorrow’s [Thursday’s] PPI data, and next week’s credit data.” — I-Net Bridge