In the five months since the Southern African Development Community (SADC) asked President Thabo Mbeki to mediate in the Zimbabwe crisis, Robert Mugabe has pushed through legislation entrenching his rule, widened rifts with his opponents and made policy decisions that have deepened his country’s economic crisis.
With just a week to go before Mbeki is due to present a report on the progress of his mediation efforts in Zimbabwe, there are no visible signs that Mugabe has cooperated as much as SADC and Mbeki had hoped.
But analysts say Mbeki goes into next week’s SADC summit in Lusaka encouraged that a set of recomÂÂmendations to rescue ZimÂÂbabwe’s economy is now ready.
SADC secretary general Tomasz Salomão, who has led the SADC team that is trying to work out an economic rescue package for Zimbabwe, disclosed this week that he has presented a document of recommended economic reforms to Tanzanian leader Jakaya Kikwete, the head of the region’s organ on politics and security.
Salomão told the Mail & Guardian this week that he had given the document to Kikwete on July 29. Although he would not discuss the contents of the report, he was quoted earlier as saying that Zimbabwe’s neighbours need to provide fertilizer and energy to the country. He also described the state of the mediation process as ”delicate”.
With the veil of secrecy over the talks, it is difficult to gauge the success of the Mbeki mediation.
There is the question of how much of the recommended reforms Mugabe will be prepared to accept. This will be key in determining the future of the Mbeki mediation process, opposition figures in Zimbabwe say privately.
Zanu-PF seems to feel it is under no pressure; it has missed meetings at will and stalled the talks on constitutional reform. Its deputy spokesperson, Ephraim Masawi, this week said his party’s delegation to the dialogue is waiting now for a formal briefing by Mugabe before taking a final position on whether to discuss a new constitution.
But among Mugabe’s opponents, patience with the regional mediation process seems to have run out.
Elphas Mukonoweshuro, opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai’s senior foreign policy adviser, disclosed the opposition’s frustration with the process. He said: ”What is most disappointing up to now is there has not been much progress in terms of the substantive issues concerning Zimbabwe. When SADC leaders mandated Mbeki to look at the Zimbabwe issue, there was a real sense of urgency to contain the total breakdown of the country, but all we see is the situation getting worse.”
Representatives of both factions of the MDC have been criss-crossing the region this week, anxious to prod it to take more urgent action.
Despite outrage over the brutal beating of opposition politicians and activists, Mugabe escaped public SADC censure at the last summit in March. State media gloated over what it saw as a diplomatic victory, saying Mugabe had managed to convince the summit that he had acted only to defend the country against a violent opposition.
At the March meeting in Dar es Salaam, he presented what was called ”a dossier of the MDC’s terror tactics” prepared by police.
But now it turns out that the entire document was a collection of lies crafted by the police. A Harare High Court judge — ending the five-month detention of 13 opposition activists accused of taking part in a petrol bomb campaign earlier this year — dismissed police claims that the activists had created a South African-based and opposition-run terror training camp, adding that witnesses who police say had linked petrol bomb attacks to the MDC were entirely ”fictitious”.
At the upcoming meeting, SADC will be under pressure to confront Mugabe about his disastrous economic policies. More than 7 500 business people have been arrested since he ordered a price freeze in June.
State media reported last weekend that Zimbabwe will produce its smallest wheat crop since 1980, after irrigated crops were hit by power cuts and fuel shortages.
The price crackdown has combined with poor harvests to create a new surge of economic refugees seeking food and jobs in neighbouring countries. It is perhaps this growing number of fleeing Zimbabweans that might persuade the region to adopt a fresh approach to the Zimbabwe crisis.
South Africa has been bearing the brunt of the exodus, but Zambian immigration has reported that the number of Zimbabweans crossing into the southern town of Livingstone in search of basic goods has risen from 60 to 1 000 people daily.
Zambia is the incoming chair of SADC and relations between Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa and Mugabe are not as cosy as Mugabe would want (see accompanying story). Mwanawasa’s deputy, Rupiah Banda, travelled to Harare in April and stroked Mugabe’s ego, calling him ”an outstanding leader”.
Last week, Banda was back in Harare ”in an attempt to make up with Mugabe”, reports said.
Zimbabwe’s opposition fears that, in his report to SADC, Mbeki will go no further than the position taken by his Cabinet recently when it voiced ”concern about the deteriorating situation in Zimbabwe”, encouraging only a continuation of the dialogue.
From mbeki to mwanawasa
Thabo Mbeki might have been chosen by SADC to spearhead dialogue among interest groups in Zimbabwe, but it is Zambian President Levy Mwanawasa who could be the key to resolving the crisis in the embattled country.
In February, at a time when most African leaders, including Mbeki, were advocating quiet diplomacy, Mwanawasa came out with one of the strongest statements on Zimbabwe yet, likening the crisis there to the sinking of the Titanic and saying that the country’s economic difficulties are forcing its citizens to leave like passengers jumping from the sinking ship.
Mwanawasa’s comments are among the strongest made by any of Zimbabwe’s neighbours since the start of the country’s economic turmoil and political confrontation.
Against that backdrop, there is some hope now that, when Mwanawasa takes over the rotational SADC chair at the coming SADC summit in Lusaka, the Zimbabwe crisis will receive closer attention.
Zambia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mundia Sikatana, told Parliament that the Zambian government regards the situation in Zimbabwe as serious and will not keep quiet.
”Zambia has been the first country to come out urging SADC to voice its concern over the situation in Zimbabwe and, therefore, it is not correct to allege that we have been quiet over this matter,” he said in response to questions from opposition MPs, who felt the government had taken a soft stance on the Zimbabwe issue.
But an official in the Zambian ministry of foreign affairs, who is helping to prepare for the summit, said the regional stand-by force and the African Peer Review Mechanism [APRM], rather than Zimbabwe, are likely to top the agenda.
”In fact, the issue of Zimbabwe may not even be so much on the top agenda for the summit. Two major issues they’ll spend more time on are the standby force and the peer review. They want to have a standby force so that, in case of an emergency, they don’t have to wait on the AU or UN.”
The official said there is a feeling that the APRM is not being taken seriously enough.
”In fact, this is where Zimbabwe may be trapped when they come to discuss the peer review, especially as the host country [Zambia] has already started implementing it,” the official said. — Kelvin Kachingwe in Lusaka