With returns from virtually all polling stations announced by the National Electoral Commission (NEC), it is clear now that a run-off poll will take place between the two leading presidential contenders in Sierra Leone.
In two weeks the opposition All People’s Congress (APC) candidate, Ernest Bai Koroma, will face the current Vice-President, Solomon Ekuma Berewa, of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), in a one-on-one contest that will bring the electoral process to its logical conclusion.
Unlike the first round where the electoral law provides that the winner must secure 55% of the valid votes to be declared winner, in the run-off a winner is determined by a simple majority.
An initial analysis of the August 11 polls suggests that both parties did well in their historic strongholds — the APC in the northwest and the SLPP in the southeast. However, the emergence within SLPP of a breakaway faction, the People’s Movement for Democratic Change (PMDC), about two years ago, significantly affected the ruling party’s chances of claiming an outright victory in the first round.
What this means in essence is that PMDC support, and for that matter those of the other four smaller parties that contested the presidential race, will be quite decisive in the run-off.
Securing about 14% of the votes nationally — with this coming mainly from the SLPP’s historic stronghold of the southeast — the PMDC emerged from this process as the most significant political force in Sierra Leone.
Led by the son of Sierra Leone’s second post-independence leader, Charles Francis Margai, the PMDC is clearly in a position now to make or break. The party’s ability to mobilise and galvanise support among voters between the ages of 18 and 35 years brought an interesting generational dimension to politics in Sierra Leone.
Historically, older supporters of the two dominant parties have paid sentimental allegiance to the APC and SLPP, as was clearly reflected by the advantages both parties secured in their respective political bases.
Beyond holding the keys to deciding who emerges as President Ahmed Tejan Kabbah’s successor, the PMDC has an opportunity to shape the course of Sierra Leone’s political history for a long time to come.
Unfortunately there were indications that the party might have squandered that opportunity by firing the first salvo too early in the run-up to the second round of voting.
In a radio interview with the BBC on Monday Margai announced an alliance with the APC, even as the NEC was busy tallying the results. This clearly did not go down well with many PMDC supporters, who accused their leader of failing to consult them, prior to announcing his decision.
In phone-in radio programmes and heated political debates across the country there were signs that a revolt might be emerging within the PMDC, with some major stakeholders in the party openly challenging the hasty decision taken by Margai.
Given that historically PMDC supporters are affiliated with the SLPP — PMDC did well in the southeast, but performed poorly in the APC stronghold of the northwest — Margai’s decision might end up giving the ruling party an advantage in the second round, provided the latter is not as complacent as it was during the first round.
An aggresive retail campaign by the SLPP in the southeast is likely to win most of the PMDC supporters back to the ruling party. If that happens it will be difficult for the APC to win the run-off, Margai’s public support notwithstanding.
It is obvious now that the culture of “business as usual” is a thing of the past.
The message of change in culture propagated by our political elites was so loudly trumpeted by voters that no politician can ignore the people anymore. Whoever emerges as winner in the run-off will have his work cut out for him. Unless he departs from the culture of taking voters for granted, by relying on the “politics of the belly” come election time, his tenure in office will be short lived.
As we prepare for the second round of voting we must continue to commend ourselves as Sierra Leoneans for what we have achieved so far and appeal to our friends internationally to continue their support for our nascent democratic process.
Dr Abdul Lamin teaches in the department of international relations at Wits University. He recently returned from his native Sierra Leone, where he observed the first round of presidential and parliamentary elections