Finally, after all the waiting, we are here. This is the week when France suddenly becomes the centre of the world for rugby fans. So it’s time to dust off the old Castaignède crystal ball and make some predictions about what is going to happen in the coming weeks.
It’s not an oval crystal ball so I’m not sure it’s totally reliable, but this is how it sees the tournament working out.
Firstly the pool stage. This may seem like a fait accompli for the major teams, apart from France, Argentina and Ireland, who contest Pool D (for Death), and Scotland and Italy, who will battle for second place behind New Zealand in Pool C. But these aren’t the only issues.
The point about this stage is that the big teams have no room to slip up. There is no easy way back in, for example, if France lose to Ireland or Argentina because they will be condemned to an away quarterfinal against the All Blacks.
There are also other things to consider early on. How will France go into the tournament after all the weeks of pressure, and can New Zealand confirm their status as favourites?
There are huge expectations of teams such as Argentina and Ireland and questions about how nations such as Georgia and the United States are progressing. There is also the hope that a team such as Samoa, Tonga or Fiji will bring down one of the more established nations.
I think Scotland and Argentina will be the victims in the two three-way pool battles. It’s a tight call with the Pumas, but their friendly matches against Wales and a Belgian Select XV were disappointing. If they are beaten by France on Friday I’d wonder whether they could bounce back against Ireland.
I’d back Italy to go through, rather than Scotland, because of the sheer speed of their progress under Pierre Berbizier, compared with that of Scotland’s under Frank Hadden. The Italians are improving rapidly and the game needs to look at supporting the domestic league, because most of their good players are going abroad and Europe could do with another strong domestic competition. A quarterfinal place would be a great boost for them.
Italy wouldn’t be an easy challenge for France in the quarterfinals, though. We never find it straightforward against the Azzurri, although I can’t see Les Bleus losing in front of their home crowd, especially if they are on a roll after turning over Ireland and Argentina.
I don’t think a quarterfinal against Ireland will be a huge worry for the All Blacks. There is little prospect of their gentle stroll to the semifinal being interrupted. Instead, they will steadily be building for the two final matches.
England are unlikely to beat South Africa in the pool stage, from what we’ve seen of both sides this summer. And after Tonga and Samoa they will feel as though they’ve been through a cocktail shaker. Les RosÂÂbifs will not make it beyond a quarterfinal against Australia, which isn’t shameful, it’s merely a reflection of how things have gone since 2003.
As for South Africa, they could be the biggest surprise of the tournament. They are a team that can move mountains in spite of the uncertainty at flyhalf. In fact, that may be an asset as they will be all the more difficult to read. They should top their pool and then gobble up Wales in the quarterfinals.
They are also one of the few sides who can actually trouble New Zealand. — Â