The information superhighway could become clogged with data by 2010, forcing broadband users to revert to dial-up modems, according to a new study.
The report by United States analyst firm Nemertes Research predicts that unless more than $100-billion is invested in the global internet infrastructure, a level of gridlock will develop that will make it almost impossible to use rich-media sites like YouTube.
Nemertes estimates the investment needed at $137-billion globally — double the level planned. The financial investment needed to ”bridge the gap” between demand and capacity in the US alone would range from $42-billion to $55-billion, or 60% more than planned, Nemertes says.
The effects will make life on the internet more difficult for users.
”It may take more than one attempt to confirm an online purchase or it may take longer to download the latest video from YouTube,” the report said.
But the internet traffic jam will also stifle innovation. ”The next Amazon, Google or YouTube might not arise, not from a lack of user demand but because of insufficient infrastructure preventing applications and companies emerging,” the report warns.
The report was part-funded by the Internet Innovation Alliance (IIA), which campaigns for universal broadband in the US.
”We must take the necessary steps to build out network capacity or potentially face internet gridlock that could wreak havoc on internet services,” said Larry Irving, co-chairperson of the IIA. — Sapa-dpa