Kenya’s presidential race entered its final and critical stretch on Monday, with the economy, corruption and tribalism looming large in ageing incumbent Mwai Kibaki’s bid to secure a second term.
The last batch of opinion polls before the December 27 vote gave flamboyant opposition candidate Raila Odinga a slight edge on Kibaki.
Both frontrunners were sparing no efforts, spending unprecedented amounts of money on TV, billboard, email and cellphone campaigns, and criss-crossing the country in convoys and helicopters to scrape more support.
Kenya is poised for its tightest race ever, even though differences between the two are imperceptible and observers argued that both contenders would keep the country on the path of economic prosperity.
The East African country has averaged annual growth of 5% since the 2002 polls and the 76-year-old Kibaki has campaigned for continuity, boasting his economic achievements and measures such a free primary education.
Yet he is also criticised for failing to tackle corruption and push reforms, notably a new Constitution that would diminish the president’s powers and create the position of prime minister.
The president is Kenya’s longest-serving parliamentarian but former dictator Daniel arap Moi’s endorsement half way through the campaign may have been the kiss of death as many critics feel Kibaki’s camp reeks of the cronyism of old.
Odinga — who spent nine years behind bars for opposing Moi — was a minister under Kibaki but has cast himself as the candidate of change and the champion of Kenya’s poor majority.
The 62-year-old drives a Hummer, wears flashy clothes and is a gifted orator.
Opinion polls indicate Odinga’s charisma has mustered votes beyond his tribal constituency but he has joined seven political parties in 15 years, leading to charges of being a populist and an opportunist.
The third top candidate, who trails in the polls but hopes to be a kingmaker, is Kalonzo Musyoka, a 53-year-old born again Christian.
There are six other candidates, but none are expected to garner many votes and one has already declared his support for Kalonzo.
None of the three leading candidates’ parties will have existed in their current form for more than a few months when Kenya’s 14-million voters head to the polling stations next week.
Kibaki’s Party of National Unity is an umbrella hastily put together in September while Odinga’s Orange Democratic Movement and Musyoka’s ODM-Kenya used to be one single coalition before it fractured in August.
Tribalism will play a key role in voters’ choices, with Kibaki representing the dominant Kikuyu tribe but many of the country’s other 40-odd tribes rallying behind Odinga — a Luo — to bar the incumbent.
Escalating tribal rhetoric has prompted fears of communal unrest in Kenya, which has been more stable than its neighbours since acquiring independence in 1963 but has a history of electoral violence.
According to police sources, at least 39 people have died in poll-related violence in recent weeks.
The leading candidates have set up security squads to guard their ballots in polling stations across the country, in a bid to prevent vote-rigging.
About 15 000 observers — including some from several international organisations — will also be deployed across Kenya, notably in some of its most remote regions.
Police are already on high alert to ensure a smooth election in a country prone to deadly crime and where the chaos in neighbouring Somalia is facilitating the flow of weapons.
In the same ballot, Kenyans will elect 210 members of Parliament and more than 2 000 local councillors, with some observers predicting that increasingly demanding voters could vote out up to 70% of sitting MPs. – Sapa-AFP