Trendspotting is not an exact science.
Accurately forecasting what a set of people, be they a citizenry, a bracket of consumer, an age group or even a gender, will do is difficult. And even if a guess is made and proves to be correct, it could be twisted on its head as people lose interest or change their minds a moment, a week or a year later.
Even with billions of dollars, years of amassed education at the most prestigious universities and expensive computers to run complicated algorithms, United States financiers were unable to see what was coming as global markets crashed.
So trendspotting is a bit of gut feel, a bit of scientific experiment and a bit of luck smooshed in the middle.
Or is it?
After reading the 2009 Flux Trend Review, each chapter written by an expert in his or her field, it is striking how much trend analysis is done with the gift of hindsight.
And, similarly, the trends outlined in the review often require reflection on the past to plot a way forward.
Dion Chang, editor of Flux, says in his conclusion: ”We are learning (or perhaps just remembering) that material gain is nowhere near as rewarding as personal or spiritual growth.” Emphasis, needless to say, is on the remembering bit.
It has to be noted that the trend forecasts, particularly on the political and economic fronts, did not foresee Mbeki getting fired, a split in the ANC or a financial meltdown of historic proportions, which will certainly alter much of society’s path going forward.
But in the discussions on consumer behaviours and purchasing trends, on the progression of product design, decor and modes of travel, the move is towards choices that are more sustainable, more humane, more concerned with their impact on the world.
People are looking back, taking stock and realising that business cannot go on as before or humanity will implode.
In his chapter on product design Brian Steinhobel says it is ”necessary to reflect on the past and think deeply into the future”. He says design reflects the technology of the time. As we become more technologically advanced, so too will the gadgets that help us perform everyday tasks.
He says the pursuit of trends is futile if we want to save a world weighed down with discarded things.
This, he says, does not bode well for trends or fashions, as they influence consumers to pursue ”what is often a fabricated desire for ownership”. He ends on a gloomy note: ”Sadly, I predict that nature in centuries to come is going to teach Homo sapiens a severe lesson in trend direction and ultimately the endless changing of matter will revert to its original equilibrium.”
A similar unease or discomfort is evident across other chapters.
The social divisions that are touched on in the review’s excellent chapters on education by Jonathan Jansen, healthcare by Aslam Dasoo, politics by Justice Malala, economics by Arthur Kamp and human behaviour by Barbara Holtman point to a real problem for this country if we want to move forward.
These inequalities are why Mbeki and his allies, who lost all touch with the population, lost the ANC, as hinted at in Malala’s assessment of politics.
They are why the sick remain so, as large ”pharma” puts profits before people, says Dasoo in the chapter on health.
And they are why nothing will change unless those in school are educated so that they meet the needs of a changing economy, as mentioned in Jansen’s chapter on education.
The actions of the state, as reflected in almost all these articles, are woefully lacking. To bring about systemic change hard work is needed, and yet our leaders focus their energy on fighting one another.
Starting to sound familiar? Underlying much of the review, it seems, are human habits that are self-destructive and self-perpetuating.
But there are chapters that discuss positive developments. Toby Shapshak’s coverage of technology touches on the possibility of a real internet broadband era for South Africa. There is also Cathy O’Clery’s discussion of design and decor with the ethos of ”touching the earth lightly”.
The Review is well put together. It dips into and draws on many complex, difficult subjects and it is well distilled and interesting. Sadly, and through no fault of the creators of this publication, this reader couldn’t help feeling that when the 2010 Flux Trend Review comes around, much will have changed, but so much will still be the same.
