Election manifestos have very little impact on voters, political analysts said on Monday, after a flurry of manifesto launches by various political parties over the weekend.
”Many people do not even read them,” said Aubrey Matshiqi, political analyst from the Centre for Policy Studies.
”Voters had already made up their minds about who they are going to vote for before the manifestos were launched,” he said.
The African National Congress (ANC) launched its manifesto earlier this month while the Congress of the People (Cope), the Pan African Congress (PAC), Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) and the United Democratic Front (UDF) launched their manifestos this weekend.
The parties unleashed their wordy, often lengthy election promises on the South African public amid much pomp and ceremony and a smattering of mud-slinging with leaders assuring supporters that their party was the only logical choice to rule the country after this year’s election.
The ANC emphasised job creation, health, education, crime and rural development.
Cope emphasised respect for the judiciary and the rule of law and along with the UDM and the IFP bemoaned poor leadership, crime and corruption.
The PAC stressed land reform, rural development and poverty eradication.
Matshiqi said voters were more influenced by the party’s leadership, however, this did not mean that the content of the manifestos did not coincide with their needs.
”They are influenced by the leaders and spokespeople and how the content [of the manifestos] is articulated by leaders … but this does not mean that what is contained in them does not coincide with the needs of citizens,” he said.
”What citizens will be looking for is which of the parties have the kind of leaders who can deliver … which parties have a chance of becoming the ruling part after elections.”
Institute for Democracy in South Africa analyst, Steven Freidman, said: ”[Manifestos] don’t have any impact on voters at all … there is no one that sits down and reads a manifesto and says, ‘I am going to vote for them’. In the main, it’s not what people base their votes on.”
Rather, voters tend to ally themselves with parties they most identified with, parties whose leaders addressed the issues they themselves and their communities faced.
”It also doesn’t matter that people don’t choose to vote based on the content of manifestos … 90 percent of the parties don’t come into power so they can’t implement them anyway and the party which does, often finds that it is very difficult to implement their policies once they are in power,” he said.
”The main point is whether you are a professor of politics or an unemployed person in a shack, your political decision becomes based on who you are and what you believe and also your past experience.”
Professor Susan Booysen from the University of the Witwatersrand’s graduate school of public and development management agreed that the manifesto was not a ”magic wand” to inspire and draw voters but said they did have a role to play.
”They actually do make a difference… they are not magic wands but they are one way in which voters extract accountability.
”Voters do remember … election manifestos have a big role and help keep parties accountable.”
Two other factors which voters generally used in determining their political allegiance is the ”image of the party” and its leadership.
Booysen said she read the manifestos ”side-by-side” and found that they seldom varied.
”It’s remarkable, there is so much policy compatibility … South Africa has moved toward a huge amount of consensus over policy over the past years.
”All parties have seemingly converged … the difference will be in the way they implement these policies and the difference in emphasis on the various issues,” she said.
Matshiqi said this election would be significant in determining the trajectory of party politics in South Africa with the inclusion of the newly formed Cope.
The party may draw ”strategic voters”, those who may be aligned to another opposition party but may feel that Cope was in a better position to challenge the ANC.
”It does not mean people will naively vote for Cope, they might be doing so because they may believe that Cope has a better chance of challenging the ANC … however, I don’t think Cope will reach its aim for 20 percent … my view is that if they win 10 to 15 percent they will have done very well,” he said. — Sapa