Trevor Manuel’s sure hand on the tiller has guided the economy through an unprecedented growth phase and ensured that we are in better shape than many to weather the international market meltdown.
His leadership role has earned him unpopularity stripes with some constituencies, notably Cosatu and the SACP. He also stands up to business, for instance when it pushes for subsidies. A case in point is his rejection of a bail-out for the motor sector.
Manuel has shown political nous. After the Polokwane purge he was so far down the ANC’s list of heavy hitters that he almost didn’t make it on to the national executive council, the ANC’s key decision-making body.
But he has clawed his way back, making it to position four on the ANC’s list of candidates for the April election. Only ANC president Jacob Zuma, ANC deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe and chairperson Baleka Mbete are higher on the list.
Some Manuel watchers believe that he will be part of the Zuma government for only a year or two before moving on, perhaps to a top banking job. But his recent behaviour, particularly in his strident defence of a no-favouritism approach to sectors such as the motor industry, suggest that he is still prepared to fight the good fight.
With Zuma signalling that he will be a one-term president, Manuel could be in the running for the top job in 2014.
But the April election and a probable Zuma government means that there could be changes to the Cabinet. A likely restructuring of the way decisions are made and implemented also signals that change is coming.
A planning commission is envisaged, which can be seen as a super Cabinet. Not all Cabinet ministers will be on the commission.
Two ministers from each of the seven clusters (economic development, infrastructure, social development, international relations, criminal justice, human capital development and governance) will form the commission.
It will be chaired by the president or deputy president and is intended to prioritise spending. Until now priorities have been largely set by the treasury.
The plan is that the commission will fall under the presidency but function as a sub-committee of Cabinet.
There is consensus within the government, Cabinet and ANC on the need for the planning commission, although there is still some debate over specific issues. One is whether a mooted agency to house all the state-owned enterprises will fall under it.
The commission will have a powerful role in the economy, setting spending priorities and, possibly, managing the affairs of entities such as Eskom, Transnet, PetroSA, Sentech, Infraco, Denel, PBMR and SAA. It could also house the state’s interest in listed entities Telkom and Vodacom.
One business leader says that it is expected that Manuel will be integral to the functioning of the commission. It has been speculated that the commission may open the way for a new finance minister, with Manuel being the chairperson.
But this would probably require him to be appointed a deputy president. Constitutionally the country has only one deputy president and Manuel is unlikely to get the nod ahead of Motlanthe and Mbete.
Changing the Constitution is unlikely to be a Zuma government’s first order of business, a source said.
The national treasury is expected to fill a “transversal role”, forming part of all the clusters given its knowledge of financial planning and its in-house skills.
Sceptics, however, view the overhaul as a way to dilute treasury’s power and influence within government.
But those close to the process say that the new structure is not hellbent on undermining treasury, neither is it about gambling with the nation’s cash.
It is about better aligning government’s implementation of programmes with its strategic vision.
Proponents argue that strategic discipline currently lacking in government has defaulted to fiscal discipline, meaning treasury has become the de facto driver of national strategy.
The planning commission could also go a long way to cross-cut the silo culture in government departments. It is widely believed that the insular, self-interested functioning of departments prevents coherent responses to priorities such as poverty alleviation.
Michael Spicer, chief executive of Business Leadership South Africa, says that business welcomes any move to better coordinate the functioning of government but “form should not come at the expense of substance”.
New structures set up mean little without the necessary leadership and political will to carry out effective governance, says Spicer.
He says that this speaks to the larger problem of the competency of the civil service. “What we don’t need is more strategy, what we do need is more execution,” says Spicer.
“A prerequisite is to address capacity in the public service, which has to be predicated on appointments of merit rather than political patronage,” says Spicer.