The prospect of Brett Lee and Mitchell Johnson hurling 150kp/h thunderbolts at ribcage and eyebrow height must have given England’s openers some restless nights as the first Ashes Test in Cardiff approached.
Lee’s impressive form in the England Lions warm-up game made him a near certainty to open the attack with Johnson but, by a cruel (or kind, depending on your loyalties) twist of fate, a rib injury sustained during the match has ruled him out of the game.
Many will recall the shift in momentum that occurred before the second Test in 2005, when Glenn McGrath sustained an ankle injury and England snatched the initiative back from their old enemy.
Injuries aside, the first Test will be won and lost by the players’ abilities to cope with pressure. The England bowling attack looks more settled than at any time since 2005 and much will depend on the guile of Graeme Swann, the control and pace of Andrew ”Freddie” Flintoff and the more mercurial swing-bowling talents of James Anderson.
Anderson may have come of age, as his form against the West Indies and elevation to the top 10 of the world rankings suggests. The ability to take key wickets with almost impossible balls has never been his problem, but he seems to have gained a level of control and self-belief that previously eluded him.
How the Australian batsmen deal with the swinging ball in English (or British) conditions will be one of the key factors in Cardiff and the series. Less convincing, perhaps, is England’s batting line-up, which has an air of uncertainty that the Australians will want to exploit.
Although Alastair Cook and Andrew Strauss are fine individual players, there is a nagging feeling that they are too similar in style to be an ideal pairing. England’s opening partnership has yet to achieve the balance that was there before the unfortunate retirement of Marcus Trescothick, whose clubbing aggression complemented the more refined rapier of Strauss.
If this partnership proves fragile against Johnson and company, Ravi Bopara will be exposed early. Despite three hundreds in his past three Tests, Bopara is yet to prove himself against quality, aggressive opposition.
Shane Warne has clearly seen a mental frailty in the England number three and has been quick to dismiss him as lacking the mental fortitude for Test cricket.
Another area of vulnerability for England is at five, where Paul Collingwood retains his place as the team’s battler-in-chief. Collingwood’s lack of technique is in almost inverse proportion to his grit and determination and when out of form his batting can be truly horrible to watch. Another target of Warne’s vitriol, for both his limited batting ability and uninspired Twenty20 captaincy, Collingwood will be desperate to succeed.
The rest of the batting line-up looks reasonably strong and if Kevin Pietersen can continue his excellent record against Australia, the aggressive lower order of Matt Prior, Flintoff and Stuart Broad can score runs quickly.
Predictably, the English media seems to have caught a collective dose of amnesia over the 5-0 drubbing in Australia and all the talk has been of Flintoff and company’s 2005 heroics.
This will be grist to the Australian mill. Ricky Ponting, in particular, will feel that there are wrongs to be righted after his captaincy was criticised during and after the 2005 defeat.
Ponting’s record as a batsman in England is modest when compared with his overall batting average, but there is no question that he will be the prize scalp for the England attack.
Steve Waugh made no secret of targeting the opposition captain in previous Ashes series and Strauss and Andy Flower, the England coach, would do well to take note and return the compliment.
For some, the defining moment in the 2005 series was Ponting’s uncontrolled ranting at the England balcony after being run out by substitute Gary Pratt at Trent Bridge. Here was the moment when the Australian armour cracked and their aura of invincibility began to look fragile.
England’s opening bowlers will be looking to attack Phillip Hughes, the Australian opener, who had an outstanding series against South Africa at just 20 years old.
Steve Harmison twice dismissed Hughes cheaply in the Ashes warm-up game and clearly feels that there are areas to exploit in Hughes’s unorthodox technique. Such was his roughing up of Hughes that it seems a Test place for the giant, if erratic, pace bowler is likely at some point in the series.
Will Cardiff be England’s first winning start in an Ashes series at home since the Edgbaston victory in 1997?
Will the Welsh public’s relative indifference to the result relieve the home team of the pressure with which they have previously struggled at Lords? Will the England attack benefit from the much-discussed Cardiff conditions?
The outcome of these ”known unknowns” (to quote Donald Rumsfeld, the verbally challenged former United States defence secretary) will determine whether the English Cricket Board’s gamble in switching venues is vindicated.