Developing countries must step up with concrete plans to cut carbon emissions to break the deadlock in beleaguered United Nations climate talks, China’s top climate change official has told the Guardian.
With four weeks to go until the next round of long-running international talks in Durban, the move highlights China’s attempt to take on a new leadership role by bridging the gulf between rich and poor countries.
But Xie Zhenhua, vice-chairperson of the Chinese government’s National Development and Reform Commission, also told the Guardian that the best chance of progress was for developed countries to draw up a Kyoto 2, a second phase of the Kyoto protocol, the first agreement between nations to mandate country-by-country reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Its first commitment phase is due to expire next year.
In the past, this approach has been seen by rich countries as simply continuing the stalemate that has afflicted the long-running talks, and several nations — including the US and Japan — have rejected a Kyoto 2 because it would not require binding legal commitments from emerging economies to limit their emissions.
But Xie believes that China’s proposal offers a new way forward, by stipulating that developing countries must also play their part, though within a different framework from the rich world.
He called on all emerging economies to bring forward plans that would demonstrate their willingness to curb the growth of their emissions. These national plans would not necessarily have the same legal status as commitments under a new version of the Kyoto protocol — for instance, they could be tied to economic conditions, or be binding at a purely national level — but Xie believes that these plans should be enough to persuade rich countries of the earnestness of developing countries’ intentions.
Many developing countries look to Beijing for leadership on this issue, so Xie’s ideas are likely to be influential. Xie, who played a prominent role in Copenhagen talks in 2009, is a major figure in the negotiations, and presented his proposal as a way to break the current deadlock.
Breakthrough
Developed world diplomats and experts contacted by the Guardian were cautious about the impact of the plan. Rich countries are unwilling to agree to legally binding cuts in their own emissions while those from emerging economies, even big emitters such as China, remain voluntary — but some said it could at least encourage developing countries to stay at the table. One long-time participant put the chances of a walkout by some developing countries at about one in five, but said China’s active encouragement could make the difference.
Another developed country official told the Guardian: “We of course would welcome tougher action from developing economies but the question here is: will this action have the same legal value as our action or will it be voluntary? Because if the latter, it might not be interesting. And if not legally binding now, when then?”
And a person closely observing the talks added that other countries would need to see more flesh put on China’s proposals before making judgment: “It depends very much on the details and who buys into this. Strategically it would break with the hardline position in the G77 [group of developing countries] and isolate India if it is at the strong end of the spectrum. The central question politically remains as to what China would do if the United States does not buy into further action, or whether they just want to leave the 2020 emission reductions as they are and not touch them. If this is where China is, then substantially I would say this is not a breakthrough but an attempt to gloss over a disaster. If China supports a process to significantly improve mitigation levels by 2020, and is prepared to either accept the United States being out of this game and or use this absence strategically, then it would be a breakthrough and change the political game substantially.”
One participant said the Chinese proposals were nothing more than a restatement of previous positions and therefore unlikely to lead to progress. The main sticking points for developed countries – a lack of comparability between rich and poor country targets, a lack of guarantee that developing country targets will be measurable, reportable and verifiable to the standard required – were still not resolved, they said.
Xie’s call came as some of the world’s smallest developing countries protested against what they see as intransigence by some of the world’s biggest economies. Japan and Russia have both in recent weeks tried to put off hopes of a new global agreement on climate change within the next few years, which the United Nations is now aiming for.
The Alliance of Small Island States (Aosis) wants to aim for an agreement by 2015, after hopes faded that a new global treaty could be signed to follow on immediately when the current provisions of the Kyoto protocol expire next year.
‘Reckless and irresponsible’
Both Japan and Russia have indicated that they regard such a timetable as unrealistic, and the issue threatens to derail the next round of the long-running talks, set to run for two weeks from late November in Durban, South Africa. Greg Barker, the UK climate change minister, who will be attending Durban, said the UK is looking at an agreement coming into effect by 2020. “We need to China, the US especially, the rest of the Basic countries [Brazil, South Africa, India and China] to agree to agree. If we can get this by 2015 we could have an agreement ready to click in by 2020,” he said at an event on Tuesday.
But Aosis this week said postponing to 2018 or 2020 was “reckless and irresponsible”.
This year’s talks are also overshadowed by rows over finance flows from rich to poor nations, to help the latter cut emissions and cope with the effects of global warming. Rich countries have promised tens of billions of such aid, but the US faces domestic difficulties in committing finance while the economy stalls, and the eurozone crisis has pushed the issue well down the EU agenda.
China plays a pivotal role in the climate talks. At the landmark Copenhagen talks in 2009, China was one of the key emerging economies — along with Brazil, India and South Africa — that forged a last-minute deal with US president, Barack Obama, while leaving the European Union out in the cold.
China — the world’s biggest emitter — has also made important strides forward in reducing the growth in its greenhouse gas output. It is now the world’s biggest producer both of renewable energy and of renewable energy generation equipment, dominating the race for clean technology.
Most participants in the Durban talks see a breakthrough this year as unlikely. The partial agreement made at Copenhagen in 2009 — where for the first time both developed and developing countries signed an international accord committing themselves to curbs on their emissions — was formalised last year at a meeting in Cancn, Mexico. — Guardian News and Media 2011