François Bozizé is probably waiting for a phone call from N'Djamena. The ousted president of the Central African Republic (CAR) does not have many options beyond the Hilton hotel he is staying at in Cameroon's capital Yaounde. Of the six heads of state meeting in Chad's capital, only the two who are not from the Economic Community of Central African States (Eccas) – Benin's President Boni Yayi and President Jacob Zuma – are likely to be pushing his case.
The reasons why Zuma backed a man few other leaders, or anybody else for that matter, seems to like, remains something of a mystery, although the fog is starting to clear. In the case of Benin's Yayi, the ties that bind are religious – both men are members of the same church.
The African Union's (AU) peace and security commissioner, Ramtane Lamamra, is also at the summit and his job appears to be saving face. AU official policy is to condemn coups, and, with this policy in mind, the AU promptly expelled the CAR when Seleka rebel leader Michel Djotodia declared himself president last month. In his first public speech, Djotodia said he would respect the Libreville peace accords signed in Gabon in January and move his country towards elections in three years. Lamamra says this is not good enough, and told the highest ranking member of the CAR delegation at the summit, Prime Minister Nicolas Tiangaye, that one year should be more than enough time to organise a presidential poll.
This seems like a reasonable stance to adopt on the AU's part. After all, there are recent precedents – the transitional government in Mali is the result of a coup, and there seems to be general consensus that Bamako's claim that it will organise elections within the year is good enough to let them get on with making them happen.
It should also not go unnoticed that the host of the summit, Chad's President Idriss Deby, also found his way to the presidential palace through the barrel of a gun, as did his friend from Congo Brazzaville Denis Sassou Nguesso, and let's not forget Equatorial Guinean leader Teodoro Obiang Nguema, who knocked off his uncle back in 1979. With personal history in mind, chances are the new big man in Bangui will be cut some slack.
There are other reasons to walk gently with the Seleka representatives. As one delegate close to Prime Minister Tiangaye was heard to say – it wouldn't be a good idea to upset Djotodia because there are 3 000 armed Seleka rebels in Bangui who could become angry very easily.
Meanwhile, back at the Hilton, Bozizé has been telling anybody who will listen, in this case the BBC, that it was the Chadians who were firing upon South African National Defence Force troops last weekend. Now that Deby is no longer his friend, he is not mincing his words. The problem for Bozizé however is that the general public in Bangui happened to notice that the people firing on the South Africans were Seleka rebels, and, in some cases, fleeing members of Bozizé's own armed forces.
People in the CAR know how to recognise Chadian soldiers. In fact, they know how to recognise Chadians. There is a fairly long history of Chadians committing all sorts of atrocities in the CAR, including looting and pillaging their way across the country as they retreated from the Democratic Republic of Congo in 1999. So generally, Chadians are not liked very much
While still friends with Bozizé, Deby dispatched some of his toughest soldiers to Bangui to act as his presidential guard. And even when Chadian soldiers are nowhere to be seen in the streets of Bangui, there are numerous cases documented by human rights groups of Chadian bandits stealing cattle from CAR farmers in the north of their country. So if the people of Bangui saw Chadian soldiers shooting South Africans, they would have been the first to say so.
In much the same light, if Zuma is hoping to convince his Central African counterparts to agree to put Bozizé back in Bangui's Renaissance Palace, he is going to have to make an offer that they cannot refuse. Frankly, I don't think he has a suitcase big enough to win their support.