/ 4 June 2013

Rand dwindles amid renewed labour unrest fears

Current account data means the rand is likely to remain weak and stoke inflationary pressures.
Current account data means the rand is likely to remain weak and stoke inflationary pressures.

The rand declined 0.2% against the dollar to 9.8375 at 6.43am GMT on Tuesday. It hit a four-year low of 10.2850 on Friday on worries about labour strife in the mining industry, as well as economic growth concerns.

It came under pressure again on Monday after a union member was shot dead at Lonmin on Monday.

But policymakers and analysts say the fall was excessive and the currency is due for a correction.

"For the first time in weeks, short-term risks are now evenly distributed. Sentiment is still nervous and any negative news could send the unit running again," John Cairns, a currency strategist at Rand Merchant Bank, said in a note to investors.

Finance Minister Pravin Gordhan said the rand had been over-valued and some degree of depreciation was necessary and expected.

Yields
Government bonds were firmer on Monday, with the yield on the benchmark 2026 issue down two basis points to 7.445%.

Treasury is selling R2.35-billion in bonds later in the session. The sale will be key to gauge where investors are keen to buy local debt again after a sell-off last month.

Results of the sale are due after the auction closes at 9am GMT.

On the economic calendar is the business confidence index for May. The sentiment indicator edged up to 92.3 in April from 90.4 in March.

A further recovery will support the currency's gains.

The South African Reserve Bank is due to release a review on monetary policy at 4pm GMT. – Reuters