/ 18 July 2013

SA Reserve Bank keeps interest rate unchanged

Sa Reserve Bank Keeps Interest Rate Unchanged

"While the upside risks to the inflation outlook reduce the scope for further accommodation, a tightening of the monetary policy stance does not automatically follow," SARB governor Gill Marcus said on Thursday, announcing the rate in Pretoria. 

"This will be highly dependent on how we see the inflation trajectory unfolding in this very uncertain environment."

Marcus said the bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) continued to face conflicting policy choices relating to rising inflation and slowing growth.

Future risks included the increased volatility of the rand and prolonged electricity supply constraints. Year-on-year inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI) for all urban areas, was 5.6% in May 2013, having measured 5.9% for the previous three consecutive months.

Marcus said this decline was likely temporary, partly due to the recent increase in the petrol price.

There were other drivers for the overall rate. Food price inflation measured 6.7% in May, up from 6.3% in April. The contribution of food to overall inflation was 1%, while housing and utilities contributed 1.4%.

Administered price inflation declined to 6.3% from 8.9% in April due to the petrol price decline.

Excluding petrol, it remained at 7.8%. Core inflation, which excludes food, petrol, and electricity, measured 5.3%, marginally up from 5.2% in April.

Inflation
The headline producer price inflation for final manufactured goods measured 4.9% in May, compared with 5.4% in April.

Marcus said the outlook for the mining sector remained bleak following a 0.7% year-on-year contraction in May.

There were indications that manufacturing would make a positive contribution to growth in the second quarter.

Household consumption moderated, retail sales had increased month-on-month for May, and unsecured lending for households was still high.

The global economic growth outlook remained fragile due to the continuing recession in the eurozone and a slowdown in a number of systemically important emerging market economies.

"While financial markets have stabilised somewhat, the risks posed to emerging economies in general, including South Africa, by normalisation of monetary policy in the US in the future, are evident," said Marcus.

 The country's major banks customarily linked their prime lending rate to changes in the repo rate and, if also unchanged, would be at 8.5%.

Nedbank confirmed its rate would remained unchanged. "Nedbank has announced that there will therefore be no change to their current prime overdraft rate, the vehicle and asset finance rate, and the mortgage rate applicable to home loans," the bank said. – Sapa