Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe.
This is a result that would set off a new round of political uncertainty and economic crisis.
Mugabe would celebrate the win, after what he called this week a "vigorous, energy-sapping campaign", but he would immediately find himself facing the same problems that have dogged him in recent years: a lack of legitimacy, and probably more pressure from his own party to step aside.
Opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai will not accept a Mugabe victory, given widespread reports of voter fraud. This raises the prospect of instability. Violent street protests are unlikely, but Tsvangirai would mostly likely appeal to the courts. However, court appeals would be unlikely to be heard urgently; some court cases contesting results from the 2008 elections remain unresolved.
Africa, especially the southern region, will probably declare the vote credible, if not free and fair. The bar was set so low by the violent run-off election in 2008 that even the West appears to be increasingly warming to the idea of accepting a credible – as opposed to free and fair – election.
Should Mugabe win, the economy will probably plunge into crisis. This week, Mugabe said driving nationalisation would be his priority. If the policy is as radical as his party manifesto suggests – targeting more than 1 000 foreign companies over the next five years for "indigenisation" – the economy could suffer.
To ensure stability, Mugabe suggested this week he would be ready to work with members of the opposition in his Cabinet. "What the voters want us to do, we will do," he said. But he still needs to reward his loyalists, who would dominate his government, sapping confidence. According to economic commentator Eric Bloch, a factor to watch out for is the make-up of the new government, and what policies it would follow.
Mugabe also wants the Zimbabwe dollar back. His reassurance that "it will take some time" before the Zim dollar is reintroduced will not ease the worries of a return to the economic crisis before 2009, the year the country adopted the United States dollar.
The succession issue will only heighten with Mugabe in power. His age was a major drag on his party, forcing Zanu-PF to airbrush his posters and cut back on the number and scale of his rallies.
At a press conference on Tuesday, a reporter suggested to Mugabe that Defence Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa was a possible successor. Mugabe laughed off the question, telling the reporter: "Your mind has run wild."
But it is a question he will have to answer, even within his party. Many senior officials in his party feel they made great sacrifices "to carry him as our candidate", as one of them put it privately this week, but there is no appetite to repeat that five years from now. "Really, it was about keeping Zanu-PF in power," the official said. "It's not about Mugabe anymore."