/ 19 August 2013

Rand slumps to six-week low as bond yields soar

There is concern that capital outflows from emerging markets will accelerate as the US Federal Reserve reduced monetary stimulus.
There is concern that capital outflows from emerging markets will accelerate as the US Federal Reserve reduced monetary stimulus. (AP)

This was due to concern that capital outflows from emerging markets will accelerate as the US Federal Reserve reduces monetary stimulus.

Indonesia's record current-account deficit and Thailand’s economic contraction highlighted the vulnerability of emerging markets to a pull-out of funds.

South Africa's inflation rate probably accelerated to 6.2% in July, above the central bank's 3% to 6% target for the first time since April 2012, a report may show on August 21, according to the median estimate of 20 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

"Fed tapering fears are pressurising emerging markets once again," said John Cairns, a currency strategist at Rand Merchant Bank in Johannesburg.

"South Africa can't escape the burden, with weakness and volatility in our bonds and the rand. We are increasingly concerned about emerging-market contagion."

The rand depreciated as much as 0.5% to 10.1390 per dollar, the weakest intraday level since July 9, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

It traded 0.3% lower at 10.1238 as of 10:31am in Johannesburg on Monday. Yields on benchmark 10.5% bonds due in December 2026 climbed eight basis points, or 0.08 percentage point, to 8.48%, the highest since April 5 2012.

Emerging-market stocks, including South Africa’s benchmark equities gauge, fell and prices of metals including copper, gold and platinum declined.

South Africa has the world’s largest platinum reserves and is the fifth-biggest gold producer. The FTSE/JSE Africa All Share Index slipped 0.2% with 89 shares trading lower, 51 gaining and 25 unchanged.

Thailand cut its full-year expansion forecast as the economy entered a recession for the first time since the global financial crisis. Bank Indonesia said on August 16 that its current-account shortfall was $9.8-billion, the largest in data compiled by Bloomberg going back to 1989.

Inflation quickened to a four-year high and economic growth slowed to the least since 2010, figures showed last week. – Bloomberg