/ 20 September 2013

Zimbabwe’s ‘new’ guard won’t save economy

Zimbabwe's ‘new' Guard Won't Save Economy

Little faith is being held out in business circles that President Robert Mugabe's new administration, which is mostly made up of a loyal old political guard, will rise to the task of turning around an underperforming economy.

In a report released this month, the World Bank downgraded the economic growth rate from the treasury's 3.4% forecast for this year to 3% and said the forecast for 2014 would remain the same.

This is the lowest economic growth rate since the formation of the unity government in 2009.

The World Bank warned that the economy remained hamstrung by a slowdown of key economic sectors, a fall in the international commodity prices, low investment and apprehension over the implementation of the 51% indigenisation programme, which it said was "bound to extend the wait-and-see attitude of both domestic and foreign investors".

The appointment of Patrick Chinamasa as the new finance minister has elicited mixed reaction from observers.

On the one hand Chinamasa is hailed for bringing an end to a hyper-inflationary period in 2009 by abandoning the Zimbabwe dollar and allowing the country to transact using the United States dollar. On the other hand, he is seen as more of a political lieutenant than a capable technocrat.

"Back to the 2000 era"
Vincent Musewe, an independent economist, said Chinamasa's appointment would not turn around the country's economic prospects.

"We are back to the 2000 era once again. The people who presided over the economic meltdown are in charge once more. It is foolhardy to expect any economic growth," said Musewe.

Zanu-PF's bread-and-butter election promises are also likely to influence the policy direction of the new government.

Opening the new Parliament on Tuesday, Mugabe said he would pursue "pro-poor policies" — among them the indigenisation programme — support black farmers and pass laws that would support economic revival.

Yet public servants remain the biggest threat to Mugabe's new government, with union bosses already moving to organise a meeting with Nicholas Goche, the new labour and public service minister, over salaries.

During Mugabe's inauguration speech last month, he promised to award increments to public servants.

Public servants currently earn about $300 a month, but are pressing for an increase of at least $560, which is the poverty line.

Promises, and promises
Tony Hawkins, an economics professor at the University of Zimbabwe, said the promise of salary increments had been made in a period of brief excitement by Mugabe, with no realistic calculations.

"Chinamasa will have to be strong, as there will be many demands that will be sent his way. He will be asked to pay for things he just does not have money for," Hawkins said.

The salary increase for public servants will increase inflationary pressure on the economy and gobble up more of the government's revenue.

Currently, the government uses up to 70% of its revenue to pay public servants' salaries.

Chinamasa this week said he was not granting any interviews as he was yet to be briefed by the ministry.

  Analysts fear Mugabe's pronouncements that the indigenisation programme "will be pursued with renewed vigour" could sound the death knell for any hopes of economic recovery.

Suicidal talk
Trevor Maisiri, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the tough talk on indigenisation was suicidal because it would result in capital flight.

"Mugabe cannot afford to be rhetorical about indigenisation. The policy must be viable and sustainable. If it does not, the very indigenous people whose cause he is championing will be negatively affected by a poorly performing economy," Maisiri said.

In the past, suggestions from captains of industry to tone down the 51% indigenisation programme included sector-specific indigenisation thresholds.

In its election manifesto, Zanu-PF indicated that it was targeting 14 economic sectors for indigenisation over the next five years.