The ANC has the 2014 elections sewn up; its majority may decrease slightly (or, less likely, increase). Everyone else will still be running for second place. But 2019, on the other hand, is far enough off for far greater uncertainty – and greater opportunity.
Two young candidates – the Economic Freedom Fighters' Julius Malema and the Democratic Alliance's Mmusi Maimane – in particular are already well on their way to making a dent in the ANC's showing in 2019. One is angry; one is disappointed. One is a very loose cannon, the other almost painfully tightly managed, but their very different approaches are both working.
Both are capable of harnessing the disaffection of the enormously powerful but largely untapped youth vote, which the ANC lost with the implosion of its youth league. Here is how they can make 2019 count.
Julius Malema
The opportunity
Statistics show that in 2019 there will be more than 10-million South Africans below the age of 30 eligible to vote. If total voter turnout breaches 20-million, election officials' heads will explode out of sheer joy. Young people will have the theoretical power to choose a government on their own.
In the absence of a miracle, about half of those young people will be unemployed; many more will be angry about their economic fortunes. Speaking to their anger will get their attention. Then it is just a matter of keeping it.
"The EFF can articulate the rage of those 10-million people, but the question is: Can it translate that rage into a policy agenda?" asks Adam Habib, an analyst and vice-chancellor of the University of the Witwatersrand. "They haven't been able to do so at the moment."
But marry the Economic Freedom Fighters with a big trade union that has gravitas, history, policy capacity, members, organisation and lines of communication, and things could change dramatically. It also just so happens that a major union is making noises about breaking free of the Cosatu umbrella.
Habib's advice: look at the status of Cosatu, and particularly the National Union of Metalworkers of South Africa (Numsa), to see whether Malema will stand a chance in 2019.
The trouble
Young people, however angry, tend not to vote. Those who do will be fiercely courted. If the EFF manages to increase the number that are involved politically, more established parties will throw more resources at gaining their allegiance. You don't have to go home with the boy who took you to the dance.
Malema also needs to keep control of his party and prevent it from fragmenting. Recent history is littered with the political carcasses of coalitions formed out of disaffection.
But even to get that far, more fundamental questions will have to be answered first.
"Will there be a political movement to the left of the ANC in 2019?" analyst Aubrey Matshiqi asks. "That is what the EFF is trying to achieve. If it does, will it be subsumed or end up in an alliance-like movement where it still has its own identity? Is Malema bigger than the EFF? Can the EFF survive if Malema goes to jail?"
Staying out of jail is not entirely in Malema's control – but it is probably safe to assume he will do everything he can on that front. Staying independent could be harder. After that, corralling young people may well seem like a cakewalk.
The look
Malema is all about revolution – being kicked out of the ANC, and so firmly cutting his ties with those in power, has made him a more plausible revolutionary. His oratory could do with some polish and he needs to learn to make short remarks rather than lengthy speeches, but he is already one of the most powerful speakers on the political scene.
What he needs is a nonverbal makeover. "He needs to think about colour," says designer Simon Rademan, author of The Style Bible. "Red can be intimidating. It is passionate, but in a romantic sense. What [Malema] says is anything but romantic, so he loses credibility through that contrast."
Also on Rademan's to-do list for Malema: check the body language (aggression is fine, but a leader must also be approachable), be seen to listen more and speak less (consultation plays well with voters) and say "please" and "thank you" every so often (because you can't be painted as a buffoon if your manners are impeccable).
Then, and only then, come the actual clothes – and those will need to shine.
"The first attraction is always physical; only then can you be attracted by ideas," says Rademan. "This is not a man who is going to win a beauty contest any time soon. He'll have to put work into the clothes."
The grind
Mobilising young voters (or any voters, for that matter) requires either large quantities of money or a pervasive local branch network – or preferably both. Seizing on parts of the smoking remains of the ANC Youth League gave the EFF a running start and its message is geared towards attracting local organisers. Once the euphoria of its establishment and the 2014 race dies down, though, Malema will need to think money – and that is going to be tough.
"Let's say you get 7% of the vote this time, now you are in Parliament," says analyst Ralph Mathekga of Clear Content. "You can't change policy with 7% and you need to run a party. You need to communicate that you can take that to 14% next time; you need to pay people who were volunteering; you need to demonstrate you can survive. You need money."
In South Africa, that means convincing companies to give you money – which they may do, even if they disagree with your policies, as long as they believe you are important to the democratic process.
To build the machine to compete, you need a practical programme you can sell – and you need to take corporate money without looking like a sellout. That is likely to be Malema's hardest job.
The politics
Malema's current platform is, simply put, anti-Jacob Zuma, more or less as a direct proxy for being anti-ANC. That will have to remain even when Zuma vacates his offices in Luthuli House and the Union Buildings.
Malema is also married to the expropriation of land without compensation, among other policies, even though that locks him out of a great deal of potential mainstream support.
But he has managed to manoeuvre himself into a position where a softening of his launch stance could be a major plus instead of being seen as back-pedalling.
"Malema is smart enough to know that he can't remain in that very radical position but that, to gain entry, he has to move away from the accommodationist and timid approach of the ANC," says analyst Sipho Seepe. "He must be unapologetic now, but he'll have to face reality later."
Other EFF leaders are already laying the groundwork for that, explaining that Malema is trying to shoulder open the door to debate. Once the discussion is going, he can both claim victory and take a softer, more mainstream-friendly stance.
"With the issue of land, he can say that he will forgo expropriation without compensation only if there is credible and demonstrable progress towards black people not being landless," says Seepe.
In one stroke the radical becomes the peacemaker.
The odds
They are so mixed that the experts shy away from even guestimates. You can find a counterbet on whether Malema will still be a player, but good luck on finding somebody who will bet on the size of vote he will capture in 2019.
Revolution is an easy sell, but to maintain revolutionary fervour is hard under the best of conditions – which is not what Malema faces. – Phillip de Wet
Mmusi Maimane
The opportunity
Mmusi Maimane has found himself in a party in which, as one Democratic Alliance insider put it, his nearest competitor at one stage was a charisma black hole. This means the young politician, who exudes warmth and likeability, has shone brightly and is a potential favourite as DA leader when Helen Zille steps down in a few years.
That done, he'll have a further opportunity given a massive gap in South Africa's political landscape: the lack of viable policy alternatives for the uninspired youth voters.
"Julius Malema has that sort of militant rock 'n roll thing that appeals to many young people," says scenario planner Clem Sunter. The problem is that his party's policy proposals are laughable or just plain disastrous. "We do need someone else to espouse economic freedom, just with a different message to old Julius," he said.
Frans Cronje of the South African Institute of Race Relations agrees. "Ultimately, in not having anything fundamentally different to bring to the policy table, Mr Maimane may see his political rise retarded," he says.
"However, add his political skills to a new, fundamentally different and exciting policy approach that appeals to young people and you have a political proposition that can lead a charge that sees the ANC lose the 2019 or 2024 elections – of that I have no doubt."
The trouble
Maimane will have his work cut out for him in moving the DA towards meaningful policy change, if the recent uproar over the Employment Equity Amendment Bill is anything to go by.
But Maimane's personal challenges will get in the way first.
Political risk analyst Mzukisi Qobo is a Maimane fan but notes that he needs to develop his ideas – and to establish a universal appeal that transcends the DA.
"He needs to provide evidence that he does have a distinct set of ideas: ideas with gravity, ideas that are coherent and that are inspiring."
The look
Maimane has crafted his image like no other politician in South Africa with carefully co-ordinated slogans, imagery, social media, big rallies and speeches centred on his theme of "believe".
His is a slick campaign, the likes of which, his staffers proudly say, no one else in South Africa can boast of.
But branding expert Gordon Cook has criticised the campaign, which draws strongly on United States President Barack Obama's 2008 campaign.
"The disappointment is Mmusi has so many strengths: he is of Soweto; a good-looking guy, which always helps; huge language skills and he's smart – but he's not drawing on what he's about. I think it is really far off the mark to introduce American kind of imagery."
He is a tightly managed DA product, many claim, with some going so far as to say he wouldn't function without his support staff.
But others see the DA campaign machinery as a necessity to harness Maimane's universally accepted charismatic appeal.
Qobo, too, warns that Maimane's campaign could deter South African voters. "People get put off by this whole Obama wave. It's had its moment and they don't want it to be a mimicry of Obama.
"They want to have a sense they know him. If he's not careful, he'll lose that. It comes across as someone who has not yet formed his own perspective and [is not yet] fully confident in his own theme to cut an authentic figure."
But one of Maimane's campaign staff members shrugged off the criticism. "If the only criticism that people can throw at us is that it's very Obama-like, then I think we're doing very well."
The grind
To his advantage, Maimane has the considerable organisational resources and funds of the DA to draw on when it comes to the unglamorous task of running an organisation.
But with just two years of political experience, Maimane's organisational leadership ability is always going to be in question.
At just 31, he found himself leading the party's large caucus of 90 in Johannesburg, 40 of whom were first-time councillors as inexperienced as he. It has not led to the most favourable reports on his organisational leadership.
His supporters point out he did well, all things considered, with his predecessor saying the caucus had a better morale under Maimane than before.
But political analyst Eusebius McKaiser says: "He spreads himself too thin and he has struggled to be a caucus leader."
The general consensus is he has to be shored up by a strong team in any leadership role, and the same would be true of him as a potential presidential candidate one day.
The politics
In Cronje's view, young politicians the world over are tasked with fundamentally changing the problematic policy frameworks that came before them and proposing new and different paradigms on how to empower young people.
Maimane and the DA are only offering variations on tried ANC policies at present. Maimane needs to go off script, analysts agree, and look at real change in the DA's policy outlook.
"[He must] bring his weight to shift the orientation of the DA more towards social justice issues and transformation issues," Qobo says.
The odds
Analysts agree Maimane is definitely a politician to watch. If he is bold enough, he could well see himself positioning his party as a serious challenger to the ANC come 2019.
But to do so, he needs to be more authentic and more specific, and accomplish the gargantuan task
of moving the DA to completely new policy proposals. Stack those challenges together and the odds aren't entirely in his favour. – Verashni Pillay