Sudanese journalists protect censorship.
Sporadically in the past few months, popular protest movements have broken out on the streets of Sudan’s major cities and were violently suppressed by the regime of Sudanese president Omar al Bashir.
Activists and analysts say that while protesters were influenced by the fervour that swept the Arab world in 2011, the movement shows different characteristics to that of the revolutions that toppled leaders in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.
They say the protests are likely to continue and could come to a head early next year if the government continues to implement austerity measures.
Meanwhile the continued hostility between Sudan and the newly independent South Sudan, as well as problems with rebellions in various regions of the country puts increasing pressure on the Al Bashir regime.
Hassan Abdel Ati, director of EDGE consultancy in Khartoum and an outspoken critic of the regime, says the street protests that have broken out since 2011 are not the first such anti-regime revolts in Sudan.
In 1964 and 1985 people also took to the streets to effect regime change.
“The difference this time is we don’t have the trade unions and the political parties are in disarray,” he says. “Today we are more or less dependent on civil society organisations and NGOs.”
He says the spirit of the Arab Spring influenced young protesters, but social media has not been as effective as in countries with bigger urban centres.
“Perhaps it made some people stay at their laptops rather than move into the streets,” he says.
The protests intensified in September this year when the government scrapped fuel subsidies, one of the measures put in place since the beginning of the economic crisis that hit Sudan after the independence of South Sudan.
More than 60 people were killed and 700 wounded during the clashes with security forces in the few days that followed the start of the protests on September 23.
The hostility between Sudan and South Sudan that resulted in the renewed outbreak of conflicts in the border regions — particularly in Abyei and the Blue Nile and South Kordofan regions — has been disastrous for Sudan.
The decision by Al Bashir to cut off the oil exports by South Sudan through its territory has meant a huge loss in revenue for both countries.
According to the Comprehensive Peace Agreement, that lead to South Sudan’s independence in July 2011, Sudan would get a share of the revenue of oil transported from the south.
Ati says that if the government decides to increase the cost of basic necessities in January 2014, it could be the beginning of another protest movement.
“People are now taking the revolt into residential areas where they will be difficult to control.”
One of the reasons the Sudanese protests have not lead to full-scale revolution is the disconnect between protesters and the political opposition, says Sudan expert Alex de Waal.
The protesters are generally disorganised and lack direction, says de Waal in a paper published in African Futures, a digital forum of the US-based Social Science Research Council.
“Today there is virtually no political co-ordination between the Sudan Revolutionary Front (SRF), which is an alliance of rebel groups and the civic opposition in Khartoum,” he says. “The rhetoric of SRF leadership and the political language and goals of the SRF undermine the non-violent protestors.”
De Waal says the fact that the Sudanese Islamists, “the most formidable organised political force in the country”, is divided, is another reason why the September protests failed.
Solutions to peace
In other countries where the Arab Spring led to regime change, such as Egypt and Tunisia, Islamists were either silent on the side of the opposition when protests initially broke out. This is also the case in Syria.
Finally, De Waal says the role of the army is crucial since the success of a protest movement could depend on whether it gets support from the security forces.
“Nothing can be ruled out in Sudanese politics, but there are reasons to believe it is unlikely that the army will either split or abandon the president,” he writes.
One of the factors contributing to the army’s lack of support for the protests is the fact that it is at war with the various SRF rebel groups in Blue Nile, South Kordofan and Darfur.
In a paper published this week the International Crisis Group (ICG) also warned about a threat of violence in the eastern part of Sudan, where the 2006 eastern Sudan Peace Agreement (ESPA) has not been fully implemented.
“The ESPA’s failure is another example of Khartoum’s piecemeal approach to resolving conflicts and the divide-and-rule default politics of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP),” says the ICG.
In the midst of this tense security situation and a shrinking economy, Sudan’s youth, who make up more than 50% of the population, are striving for a better future.
In an opinion piece published by news network, Al Jazeera, lawyer and human rights activist Abdelkhalig Shaib says he believes Sudan can “slide into civil war” if the government continues to suppress protestors and ignore the call for political reform.
“Sudanese youth were enthusiastic this time and were hoping for change, a change not only in their living conditions which were affected directly by the end of fuel subsidies, but also a political one,” he writes.
“Those who protested and died for change dreamed of a country that respects its people, their dignity and above all acknowledges not only their right to freedom of speech but also their indispensable right not to be unjustly killed,” he says.
This article was produced in partnership with the South Africa Forum for International Solidarity (Safis) safis.org.za. Views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of Safis or the Mail & Guardian