/ 4 January 2017

​Will the ‘premier league’ faction save Jacob Zuma?

In league: Free State Premier Ace Magashule remains a staunch supporter of President Jacob Zuma. Others have ditched him.
In league: Free State Premier Ace Magashule remains a staunch supporter of President Jacob Zuma. Others have ditched him.

NEWS ANALYSIS
The president may have evaded multiple attempts to have him removed from office in 2016 — but the legal battles and attacks on his leadership that have defined his presidency are likely to follow him into 2017.

Last year Jacob Zuma survived two motions of no confidence in Parliament, numerous civil society marches and even public pleas from ANC veterans and party structures, all making the same resounding statement: step down.

The year took off at a turbulent pace after the Constitutional Court ruled in March that he had failed to uphold the Constitution by ignoring the public protector’s report on Nkandla and its remedial action. Despite the ruling having sparked calls from civil society, opposition parties and certain ANC structures for Zuma to step down, he managed to avoid any action against him on the part of the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC). But the brief reprieve was not to last, as the rest of 2016 would prove.

In November, Zuma narrowly escaped a motion of no confidence tabled at an NEC meeting by Tourism Minister Derek Hanekom. Although he may have survived the motion, a strong political message was sent: Zuma had enjoyed countless “second chances” and those who protected him were growing tired.

Should the fraud and corruption charges be reinstated, there will probably be more of a push from close quarters. With a pallid, scandal-ridden legacy behind him, some in the ANC may yet turn their backs on Zuma to protect their own interests, says constitutional law expert and political analyst Shadrack Gutto.

“I think there are greater forces that will say step down. Because the leaders in the party, many of them do not want to fall with the president. Each is looking at his career and would not want to be buried with him,” he says.

Given the many legal battles Zuma faces, he will definitely need the ANC’s undivided support in 2017.

He will start the new year with a legal battle to avoid the reinstatement of 783 fraud and corruption charges against him relating to the spy tapes saga.

Before the Supreme Court of Appeal decides whether to accept an application for leave to appeal, Zuma’s legal team will have to present their arguments in an open court this year.

Should their attempt prove unsuccessful, the corruption charges will be reinstated, which will undoubtedly place Zuma in a difficult position in the ANC.

Another event that will be closely watched is Zuma’s second appearance before the ANC’s integrity commission on January 15. Repeated attempts to oust him have catapulted him right into the clutches of the commission, which first summoned him in November 2016 over concerns that he had brought the party into disrepute.

Despite Zuma’s claims that his appearance then was a mere chat on the direction the ANC was taking, the fact that he is being summoned a second time shows just how serious the commission is.

On top of Zuma’s legal woes looms the spectre of the public protector’s State of Capture report, which will play itself out this year.

The report implicates many seen to be close to the president, including the controversial Gupta family, which is accused of using its proximity to Zuma to gain undue influence.

It also observes that Zuma may have breached his executive ethics code by allowing the Guptas access to confidential state information.

But never one to back down, Zuma has filed papers in the high court in Pretoria to have the report set aside, arguing that its remedial action is inconsistent with the Constitution.

“It is the president who has a right to appoint a commission. No one, no matter what position they hold, can instruct the president to establish a commission and even tell the process through which it must go. It’s very funny, I’ve never heard of it,” he told the National Assembly in November.

Political analyst Somadoda Fikeni says that the president is likely to seek avenues to protect his Gupta allies, which means there is a high probability that the legal process will drag on throughout the year, and thus have minimal impact on his term as ANC president.

“Since most of the legal battles will be in their inception stage he is more likely to survive,” says Fikeni.

Still, this year will see pressure building up against Zuma, who now has little room left to manoeuvre. Unlike before, he will find it difficult to reshuffle his Cabinet to remove those perceived to be his political opponents without damaging his already tenuous credibility. One of the few options he has left to protect himself is to influence who succeeds him as president later this year.

The succession battle will see Zuma do all he can to prevent the election of a president who is not an ally, which will leave him vulnerable to prosecution, harsh reprimand by the ANC and possibly even a recall. By pushing for the election of a candidate who is an ally, Zuma stands a better chance of avoiding isolation once his term as president of the country comes to an end in 2019.

This process has already begun, with the Zuma-aligned “premier league” backing the election of outgoing African Union Commission chairperson and Zuma’s former wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, to succeed him.

Gutto says if the premier league faction has its way, Zuma’s last attempt to save himself is likely to succeed.

“In this case they are abusing family connection. They have put Nkosazana in a very difficult position. Because she is his former wife and, as any natural person, she wouldn’t want to see him end up in jail,” Gutto maintains.