/ 14 March 2017

Winner or not, ‘Dutch Trump’ will rattle the Netherlands

Dutch politician and leader of the Party for Freedom
Dutch politician and leader of the Party for Freedom

NEWS ANALYSIS

The Netherlands, which boasts the fifth-largest economy in the eurozone, goes to the polls on Wednesday March 15 in the next big test since Donald Trump’s election and Brexit of whether anti-establishment, conservative forces will continue to make political headway.

With the far right leading in polls for much of the campaign, the country will soon discover whether much of its long-standing, albeit now-fraying, liberal political traditions are “under water” like much of its landmass.

Polls this month have tightened with some showing Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s centre-right People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) having a narrow advantage. But concern remains that the populist Freedom Party, led by “Dutch Trump” Geert Wilders, could emerge – for the first time – as the largest single party.

Wilders, who was convicted last year of incitement to discrimination, advocates an array of controversial positions – including “de-Islamicising Europe” – that have ostracised him from mainstream politicians in the country.

His nativist, nationalist platform is similar to that of other populist, far-right leaders across Europe and his central pledge to “make the Netherlands ours again” has obvious echoes of the United States president’s “make America great again” slogan.

Wilders – who has longstanding connections with right-wing US conservatives and attended the Republican convention in Cleveland last year – recently said Trump “has done more to beat the mass immigration in two weeks’ time [in office] than the whole of European governments in their whole existence”.

But, for all the similarities that Wilders has with European far-right leaders in his enthusiasm for Trump, he is not an identikit politician to them, which partially reflects the fact that he split from the VVD just over a decade ago. For instance, unlike some on the far-right who oppose LGBTI rights, including same-sex marriage, Wilders claims to support these, which he believes are in line with traditional Dutch values.

Moreover, although Wilders has articulated pro-Russia positions, he has sought to keep more distance from President Vladimir Putin than some on the European ultra-conservative fringes. This is partly because anti-Moscow feelings are still strong among many in The Netherlands after the downing of Malaysia Airline MH-17 in July 2014 by a missile launched from pro-Russian separatist-controlled territory in Ukraine that saw 193 Dutch citizens killed.

Despite the fact that the Freedom Party could still emerge as the largest group in Parliament, this outcome is generally not being treated with the same degree of alarm in Europe as the prospect of French National Front presidential candidate Marine Le Pen winning power in May.

This is because it is unlikely that Wilders will become Dutch prime minister later this month: polls indicate that the Freedom Party will win less than 30 of 150 seats in Parliament and – in a context where the country’s elections generally lead to coalition governments – almost all other groups have ruled out working with him, for now at least, because of his extreme views.

In a country, for instance, with a long tradition of religious tolerance, Wilders has asserted Islam is potentially more dangerous than Nazism; that the Qur’an is more anti-Semitic than Adolf Hitler’s Mein Kampf and that it should be banned from book stores; and called mosques “Nazi temples”. As such, he has pledged to “de-Islamicise” the country.

Wilders has warned of a popular “revolt” should the Freedom Party emerge as the largest single group, but not win power. In this scenario, it is likely that support for his cause could only grow in the short to medium term, with potentially multiple consequences.

First, the sometimes outrageous rhetoric of Wilders may continue to push the political centre of gravity rightwards. Recently, for instance, Rutte – the VVD leader – has been criticised for his own sharpened attacks on immigration, which critics argue apes Wilders, who last month urged a crackdown on “Morrocan scum”.

Second, in a country that has voted “no” in two key, separate EU referendums in the last 12 years – in 2005 and 2016 – Wilders is further polarising the electorate around European Union membership. He has even accused “war-mongering” and “shameless Europhiles with their dreams of empire” of the problems in Ukraine by propping up what he describes as the “National Socialists, Jew-haters and other anti-democrats” in Kiev’s pro-Western government.

Although levels of support for leaving the EU in the Netherlands are lower than in the United Kingdom, some polls indicate around half the electorate would like a “Nexit” referendum. In this context, Wilders and other leavers are surfing a wave of Eurosceptism, especially in the conservative south of the country, which could grow in salience.

Third, and cumulatively, the growing influence of Wilders could make governability in the country increasingly complex and difficult. This is especially so given the growing fragmentation of Dutch politics, which will see some 28 parties (about half of which did not exist in 2013) trying to win seats in the election.

Taken overall, although Wilders is unlikely to emerge this month as prime minister, his effect on Dutch politics could be significant for years to come. His prominent far-right challenge means the election will be closely watched internationally, not least in France, given that his ally Le Pen is looking for inspiration to pull off an upset victory herself in France’s presidential race.

Andrew Hammond is an associate at the Centre for International Affairs, Diplomacy and Strategy at the London School of Economics