South Africa needs to revive its domestic vaccination manufacturing capability to keep foot-and-mouth disease under control. Photo: File
South Africa’s consumer food price inflation rose to the highest level in 16 months, at 4.7%, in June 2025, from 4.4% in May, underpinned mainly by recent increases in the price of meat; oils and fats and vegetables. But this increase does not alter our assessment of moderate food price inflation in 2025.
The increase in the meat price inflation was caused by two significant factors, which have somewhat eased. First, the outbreak of avian flu in Brazil led to South Africa temporarily restricting imports of poultry products from the country, and this caused panic in the market. South Africa imports roughly 20% of its annual poultry needs and Brazil is one of the key suppliers. However, the restrictions have now been lifted and imports are expected to recover in the coming months.
The restrictions were necessary to ascertain the scale of avian flu in Brazil, and ensure that it was eradicated, before imports could resume. South Africa has received confirmation that Brazil has successfully eradicated the disease and lifted the ban on imports. There will be a lag before we see the impact of improved supplies on prices.
Second, South Africa experienced an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, which led to concerns about red meat supplies and some panic buying, temporarily pushing up prices. This was particularly true after the country’s largest feedlot reported an outbreak.
This was followed by a vaccination campaign to limit the spread of the disease. We understand that slaughtering has now resumed in the major feedlots, and we are seeing some easing in red meat prices, which should be reflected in the inflation figures of the coming months.
Moreover, when there are outbreaks of disease, South Africa is temporarily restricted from various export markets, which, over time, increases the supply of red meat to the local market.
This does not mean the foot-and-mouth disease is over in South Africa — far from it. The livestock industry remains in a challenging condition, with increasing costs affecting cattle farmers and feedlots.
One of the interventions South Africa must undertake is the widespread vaccination of cattle against foot-and-mouth disease, as it occurs more frequently. However, this also requires that the country focus on reviving its domestic vaccination manufacturing capability, which was one of the casualties of state capture. Still, for the main point of this article — food inflation — the path ahead looks promising. It is farmers who continue to be under financial strain and are price takers.
Regarding the oils and fats, the local market somewhat mirrors the trades we see globally, and the United Nation’s Food and Agriculture Organisation’s Vegetable Oil Price Index has remained elevated in recent times because of strong global demand for palm oil. This matters because South Africa imports a sizable amount of palm oil for both food and industrial use. Still, we also have domestic production of some vegetable oils, such as canola and sunflower seed.
We expect the decent local sunflower seed crop to help ease any concerns about supplies in the local market in the coming months.
Overall, we anticipate South Africa’s food price inflation to moderate in the coming months, as the benefits of ample domestic grains and an expected decent fruit harvest continue to enter the market.
We also believe that the worries about meat prices will ease soon as supplies recover. We also view the recent increases in vegetable prices as a temporary blip due to weather issues and expect supplies of various vegetable products to recover significantly in the second half of the year.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.