A confidential internal report has painted a grim picture of disarray in the African National Congress (ANC) Youth League, with seven of its provincial structures collapsing or in deep crisis. And insiders say the unwavering support of the league’s national leaders for Jacob Zuma is a significant factor in this decline.

Businessman Tokyo Sexwale has declined to respond to information that he met with ANC deputy president Jacob Zuma to ask him for his assistance in elbowing out Cyril Ramaphosa from the party’s presidential race. Sources in Jacob Zuma’s camp say Sexwale not only met Zuma at least three times last year to discuss his bid for the party leadership — he also asked for Zuma’s help in fighting off tycoon Ramaphosa.

Whoever wants to be the next president of the African National Congress will probably have to go through president Thabo Mbeki, who has been asked by the party’s most influential province to guide the 95-year-old ANC towards its centenary years. Senior members of the Eastern Cape provincial executive committee (PEC) of the ANC are convinced that this “son of the soil will never say no to a mandate by the ANC”.

This weekend is likely to see a blockbuster show of unity from the ruling African National Congress as the party celebrates its 95th birthday. Yet, behind the scenes, senior members worry that the very future of the party is threatened. President Thabo Mbeki and the ANC deputy president, Jacob Zuma, cut a cake and sang “Happy birthday”, the beginning of the party’s tactic of showing unity.

Jacob Zuma’s supporters believe that he is in a strong position to succeed President Thabo Mbeki and should stay in the race, even if there is a bid by businessman Tokyo Sexwale to take the Union Buildings. “Zuma should fight to the end and not bow out of the leadership race,” said a supporter this week.

Conflict is looming between the ANC and its youth wing after the ANC announced that it would step into the squabble between the ANC Youth League’s national leadership and its provincial structure in the Eastern Cape. The intervention of the ANC stems from a decision by the league’s national executive committee to disband the Eastern Cape provincial executive.

The ongoing disarray in the South African National Civics Organisation continued this week when the organisation’s national congress was disbanded with no agreement on how to take the paralysed civic movement forward. The congress, which was held at the University of the Free State in Bloemfontein, was preceded by violence on Tuesday.