Jacob Zuma’s supporters believe that he is in a strong position to succeed President Thabo Mbeki and should stay in the race, even if there is a bid by businessman Tokyo Sexwale to take the Union Buildings.
”Zuma should fight to the end and not bow out of the leadership race,” said a supporter this week.
Sexwale is therefore not likely to get the blessing of Zuma even if the African National Congress (ANC) deputy president is persuaded to pull out of the race. This rules out his chance of being elected as a compromise candidate should a deadlock be reached at the conference.
This week, the Mail & Guardian canvassed the left in the tripartite alliance as well as provincial leaders about the chances of Sexwale’s bid succeeding.
The Sunday Times reported last week that Sexwale had held meetings with three Cabinet ministers, as well as with Zuma, in the early stages of entering the race.
The ruling party’s December 2007 conference where a president is chosen means that power is in the hands of provincial leaders.
While Sexwale may enjoy support from members of the ruling party’s national executive committee (NEC) and the business community, this is not enough in ANC politics, where the grassroots is the most important constituency come conference time.
ANC leaders who spoke to the M&G this week said Sexwale has ”little or no chance” of winning the hearts and minds of ANC delegates at the party’s elective conference, especially because he has ”no solid or established” support base.
”He has no constituency. Who is going to be pushing his name? The conference floor is going to be fluid with intense lobbying and the political climate changing by the minute. It is therefore important to have groups of influential people selling your name,” said a KwaZulu-Natal provincial minister.
Sexwale once controlled the powerful and influential province of Gauteng during his tenure as premier, but that constituency is now firmly in the grip of incumbent Mbhazima Shilowa.
Also crippling a potential campaign is the fact that the working class in the Congress of South African Trade Unions and the South African Communist Party see him as a business candidate who would not tinker with current pro-business policies or shift the ANC towards a pro-poor socialist agenda espoused by these organisations.
It is also generally accepted that any candidate hoping to launch a fierce campaign for the party presidency should have a strong constituency in at least one of the three most powerful provinces — the Eastern Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng.
Sexwale has no constituency in any of these provinces. Already, the Eastern Cape elective conference last year resolved to back Mbeki to stay another term as party president, while the KwaZulu-Natal provincial executive council announced it would back Zuma to replace Mbeki.
Gauteng, which is dominated by Mbeki supporters, is expected to align itself with the Eastern Cape.
Sexwale’s reliance on the support of ANC elders like former president Nelson Mandela is also not likely to take his campaign far, as Mandela is seen by the Zuma camp to be closer to the Mbeki camp rather than being neutral on the succession battle.
Madiba lost favour when he backed Mbeki’s decision to relieve Zuma of his duties, and neither the NEC nor the party elders seem to hold much authority in the succession battle.
There is, of course, no love lost between Mbeki and Sexwale. The former Gauteng premier was one of the three people mentioned in the early plot allegations Mbeki leveled against opponents early in his ascendancy to power.
If the current president’s gambit to stay on for a third term as party leader succeeds, then he is unlikely to anoint Sexwale as the country’s president.
Mbeki already has the support of the Eastern Cape, and is expected to be supported by Gauteng, Limpopo, the North West and Western Cape in his bid for a third term.
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
Clement Botha — financial settlements negotiator (Johannesburg):
From an economic point of view, Tokyo is the better candidate for the ANC presidency. His name carries more weight in the business arena and he has had his time in politics as well. Jacob Zuma has proved to the nation that he is the man of the people, but at the end of the day we need someone who will help put food on the table.
Sam Selepe — support services employee (Sandton):
Sexwale is a better candidate than Jacob Zuma for obvious reasons. He has proved, as both a politician and a businessman, that he has the integrity and vision of a good leader. I would not want Jacob Zuma to lead the ANC or the country because of questionable decisions he has made in the past.
Thando Lobese — store assistant (Yeoville):
Personally, I cannot support Tokyo. It would not feel right to have another white woman as our first lady. It would feel as if we have gone back to the days of [Hendrik] Verwoerd and die Groot Krokodil [PW Botha]. Sexwale seems the right candidate, but his wife is a disadvantage.
Reuben Huma — support services manager (Sandton):
Sexwale was a good premier for Gauteng and to me he remains the best candidate for the ANC presidency. Sexwale will be very effective in expunging the two existing camps within the party. Zuma has done his job very well as the champion of the masses, but at the end of it all we need to differentiate between a freedom fighter and a good leader. We need economic development in this country, not [Robert] Mugabe types of political leadership.
Craig Minnaar — account executive (Sandton)
I’d go for Tokyo because he has experience in the industry. He is renowned for his business prowess and has in all the years managed to stay out of controversy and scandals. He has the integrity of a good leader and that has been reflected in the success of his businesses. Jacob Zuma needs serious competition and Tokyo has what it takes to challenge him.
Freddy Ralefeta — IT technician (Sandton)
Sexwale seems the best choice but that does not mean Zuma is useless. He made his mistakes just like everybody does and we need to give him a chance. At the end of the day, everybody learns from his or her mistakes.
Redford Kgwadi — cleaner (Orlando, Soweto)
Tokyo has always been a good leader even before he quit politics for business, and this Zuma person is not. His name carries a lot of scandals that could damage the reputation of the country if he were to become the president. In fact, even Mbeki was not the best leader. It is high time we gave a female person a chance to become president. Phumzile [Mlambo-Ngcuka, the Deputy President] has what it takes to lead this country despite the fact that some people hate her.
Maurice Mlambo — security guard (Rosebank)
Tokyo is the right candidate for the leadership of the ANC, even the country. All the leaders we have now fight against one another all the time — we don’t need that.
Lwazi Hlophe — freelance photographer (Johannesburg)
As a president, Tokyo could cut it but it will be interesting to find out how he will separate his presidential obligations from those of his businesses. We do need a president who is economically inclined like him. If he wants to become president of the ANC and the country, he must be prepared to put his health at risk. I saw Mbeki age [dramatically] in six months. The presidency is definitely the hottest post in the country.
Lebo Segaetsho – store assistant (Protea, Soweto)
Tokyo is fine, but Zuma is not. Actually, I would prefer a female person as next president of the country. Phumzile is the best candidate and I feel that with her in the seat, women’s rights will be fully respected, unlike now.