In 2009 Thabo Mbeki will step down as president of South Africa after 10 years at the helm. What will he do next?
Shortly after he retired, Mbeki’s predecessor Nelson Mandela established the Nelson Mandela Foundation in 1999, which allowed him to devote much of his time to children and improving the quality of education in impoverished areas.
He later pioneered ”46664”, a global music-led campaign, to raise funds to fight the HIV/Aids pandemic in Southern Africa.
Various analysts and political commentators believe there are a number of roles at Mbeki’s disposal after he retires.
Mbeki has strong political credentials on the African continent and by 2009, he would have spent a decade at the epicentre of the continent’s geopolitics. Together with other African leaders, he established the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (Nepad), an initiative to promote democracy, good governance and peace on the continent in the hope that developed countries would increase aid, investment and trade opportunities, and provide debt relief.
Nepad is the economic arm of the African Union, the nascent attempt to forge continental unity by securing peace and building economies. Mbeki has used his position as South African president to build the AU. South Africa foots the bill for a lot of the AU’s work and Mbeki negotiates from this structure.
He has enjoyed success in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which held elections this year. At his behest, warring factions held lengthy talks at Sun City in South Africa, which now appear to have paid off.
Mbeki could replace Alpha Oumar Konare as the head of the AU. Konare is a former head of state.
If he does not do this, Mbeki could also easily secure a position at the United Nations, World Bank or the International Monetary Fund, where he could leverage resources for African peacekeeping and development.
Some analysts believed that Mbeki might have well been a suitable candidate to succeed Kofi Annan, the former United Nations secretary general, but Ban Ki-moon, the South Korean foreign minister, has already filled the position.
It will take a while before Africa has another crack at the top UN job, though a position as under- secretary general might also suit him well.
One analyst said it is obvious that Mbeki will not retire quietly because he can play a ”fairly” active role in the country and beyond because he is ”young and passionate about his agenda”. Mbeki will be 67 years old when he waves goodbye to the Union Buildings.
However, the African National Congress (ANC) leadership may want to keep him involved in the politics of the country to ensure a smooth transition, but this will only be a positive if he seeks to empower and not to impede or to dominate.
Mbeki can also get involved in issues that are less political, such as establishing his own foundation. ”That could make a strong statement to young people that it is important to be an intellectual,” one analyst said.
This view is supported by another analyst, who feels that Mbeki could do well with an endowed chair at a prestigious university because that would allow him time to write and reflect on his life and political career. ”It could also give him the freedom to give lectures on the challenges facing the world today,” the analyst said.
Mbeki is an intellectual president. He reads voraciously and is glued to the internet. His weekly ANC letter on the party’s website suggests a future as a blogger may beckon.
Others have warned against Mbeki venturing into business because, while it may be lucrative, it could be an ”uninspiring” choice.
If he needs some lolly, Mbeki could move onto the lucrative international speaking circuit, where he would join the likes of Archbishop Desmond Tutu and former president FW de Klerk, who have made an industry of peace-making and peaceful transition.
Or he could just follow in the footsteps of Madiba: take Zanele’s hand, find a stoep to sit on and watch as the apricot sunsets dip into the distant horizon. He could even take photographs of the sunsets; Mbeki is a keen shutterbug.