ANC President Cyril Ramaphosa at the party's national general council forum. (Delwyn Verasamy/M&G)
The rapturous reception President Cyril Ramaphosa received from delegates on the first day of the ANC’s national general council (NGC) forum in Johannesburg this week suggests that any possible plan to recall him by his internal foes will not succeed.
Delegates dressed in black, green and gold party regalia broke into song at the venue in Ekurhuleni on Monday, belting out “Ramaphosa re hu rata kaufela, retsamaya le wena” (Ramaphosa, we love you, we are behind you) and effectively transforming the atmosphere into a rally for the ANC leader. Chants of “Ramaphosa” also echoed through the hall.
Indirectly addressing Ramaphosa’s critics in his supplication for a successful NGC, ANC former chaplain-general Reverend Vukile Mehana prayed: “We call upon you, Lord, to give him perseverance to focus, because not all will agree with him. When Oliver Tambo led, there were those who did not agree with him. When Nelson Mande led, there were those who were against him. When Thabo Mbeki led, there were those who were against him.”
Allegations surfaced in the run-up to the NGC that some members of the ANC national executive committee (NEC) were calling for Ramaphosa to resign. In his closing remarks at an NEC meeting last month, Ramaphosa said anyone calling for his removal should do so to his face rather than in private corners.
Days later, ANC secretary general Fikile Mbalula confirmed that a few party members believed its leader should resign and were hoping to use the national general council to advance their agenda. He, however, added that Ramaphosa was an asset who would be betraying the ANC by stepping down.
Last year, some in the ANC called for the dissolution of its leadership and the NEC after the party failed to win the 2024 general elections outright, with its national support slumping to an all-time low of around 40%.
On Monday, ANC chairperson Gwede Mantashe also had strong words for Ramaphosa’s detractors, telling them: “You are going to say whatever you want to say here and not outside these walls. Anything not prescribed by the NGC is not going to happen.”
Ousting Ramaphosa now would be detrimental to the ANC, political analysts told the Mail & Guardian, with one of them, Dale McKinley, adding that the anti-Ramaphosa faction “neither has the power nor the numbers to launch a meaningful threat”.
“Rumours of the planned ousting are just factional posturing. It would be political organisational suicide at this stage, one of the lessons to be learnt from history. Doing so before the elections is like shooting yourself in the foot,” McKinley said, referring to next year’s local government vote.
“Despite all the criticism against Ramaphosa, we should remember that those who have broken from the ANC, like the [Jacob] Zuma faction, are not having a great time themselves. Results of the last national election do not give the ANC the power to recall Ramaphosa. Who are they putting forward?”
Ousting Ramaphosa would be “far too divisive”, analyst Daniel Silke weighed in.
“I don’t think that at this stage, the ANC can afford to repeat its recent history of removing a sitting president before an election or poll. Whatever the factions say about Ramaphosa — whether there is a rising tide of unease about his leadership abilities or the ANC being able to claw back any lost support, it is just too late in the day for the ANC to repeat its errors of the past,” Silke said.
Despite his flaws, Ramaphosa retained “a certain degree of status in the South African body politic”, he added.
“I don’t believe there is necessarily anyone else in the ANC in the short term who will be able to occupy that particular slot. The simple politics of South Africa would suggest that Ramaphosa will hold onto his position at least for the moment. The upcoming local government election will be the test of his leadership and that of the broader ANC — on whether they have been able to claw back any lost support,” he said.
“I don’t think there is any better candidate within the ANC as an alternative. They are positioning themselves for 2027 and the battle to 2029 — rather than for the battle this year — so, no leadership change in the ANC.”
The NGC is not an ANC elective conference and cannot draft new policies, a third political commentator, Dirk Kotze, pointed out.
“It can rather focus on the work of the ANC and to what extent its mandate has been implemented. It cannot move into unconstitutional territory. Next year’s local government elections should occupy a central spot in party deliberations, also looking at service delivery issues. The membership issue and how candidates are identified is going to be crucial,” Kotze said.
“Against a decline in membership, organisational matters should receive much attention.
Broader economic policies, job creation and inequality are relevant.”
He recalled the 2005 national general council, after which then deputy president Zuma was dismissed by former president Thabo Mbeki.
“Zuma was also relieved of all his tasks in the ANC, not able to attend party meetings — simply put on ice. That NGC overturned that decision – leading to the ANC crisis,” Kotze said.
A key policy issue of focus for this week’s national general council must be the economy and how the ANC proposes to address discontent among its own constituency, people who have historically voted for the party but have lost faith in it, McKinley said.
“The ANC’s fundamental problem is that the policy message on the economy does not speak to people who are most likely to vote for them. Pleasing minorities like foreign investors and business is all well and good to some extent. But if the ANC fails to talk to the electorate politically, not listening to people is bound to lead to more support loss,” he said.
Factions “building within the ANC” are related to the next elective contest in 2027, pitting those who want to perpetuate the government of national unity (GNU) formed last year with the Democratic Alliance and other parties, against those who wish to reconstitute the coalition ahead of the next general elections in 2029, Silke said.
“Those pushing the hard-line stance against the GNU want to govern with nationalist or populist political parties. That is where the big division in the ANC is going to be, in the next few years – those who view the GNU as important for continuity and those who want stability in South Africa as it stands at the moment,” Silke said.
“There will be a tough fight for the ANC, especially if it loses support in the local government elections, which will be seen to be a referendum for the ANC,” he said.
“As a referendum, if Ramaphosa and the ANC perform poorly in the local government elections, this will pile on the pressure and will favour the faction wanting to see a reconstituted GNU away from the DA – enabling the ANC to link up with populist political parties,” said Silke.
“This may win them votes in the short-term, but [it is] more detrimental for South Africans in the medium to long-term.”