Poised to win: Côte d’Ivoire, under President Alassane Ouattara, has the potential to play a stabilising and mediating role. He has excelled in linking economic development to political stability. Photo: Supplied
Political success is closely linked to sustainable economic performance. Economically strong countries often experience stable political conditions, while poor economic performance has historically triggered protests and even military takeovers in Africa.
Countries like Guinea, Gabon, Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, which have experienced military takeovers in recent years, continue to face persistent security threats from armed groups despite some signs of economic improvement. Debt servicing consumes a large portion of government revenues in these nations, much of which stems from colonial and post-colonial periods.
While opinions differ on the legitimacy of these military takeovers, there is broad agreement among leaders that political change alone cannot guarantee long-term stability and economic growth.
President Alassane Ouattara of Côte d’Ivoire has excelled in linking economic development to political stability. Between 2012 and 2019, the country achieved annual growth of 7–8%, and it has also streamlined its cocoa exports, the backbone of its economy. Côte d’Ivoire is one of the world’s largest cocoa producers, supplying 40% of global demand.
When faced with protests over his eligibility to run for another term, Ouattara turned to the courts, which allowed him to contest the elections. This reinforced the rule of law in the country. He is again contesting the presidential elections on 25 October 2025 and remains popular, with analysts predicting his victory.
In previous publications, I have argued that “Alassane Ouattara is poised to win elections despite threats from the opposition”.
In January 2025, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso withdrew from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) after a year of diplomatic tensions. These three countries experienced military coups in 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively. ECOWAS, a political and economic union of 15 West African states, faced a significant challenge with their departure. The withdrawal was prompted by these states’ refusal to restore democratic rule. According to Al Jazeera, the countries accused ECOWAS of taking directives “dictated to it by powers that are foreign to Africa”.
Côte d’Ivoire shares borders with Liberia, Ghana, Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali. Three of these neighbours — Guinea, Mali, and Burkina Faso — have experienced military coups in the past four years, contributing to an influx of immigrants into Cote d’Ivoire, including continual flows from Niger. Côte d’Ivoire is the largest migration corridor in West Africa. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the country is hosting over 69 847 Burkinabe political asylum seekers.
Malians also form one of the largest immigrant communities in the country. Economic opportunities draw many immigrants, while others are fleeing political instability. The stability of Côte d’Ivoire is therefore essential to the region, as its economic growth, political stability, and development of human capital play a critical role in regional security.
Recent changes in neighbouring governments have increased Côte d’Ivoire’s political significance. The lack of civilian rule in these countries continues to limit their potential. At the same time, the formation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES) by Mali and Burkina Faso could weaken ECOWAS further and heighten regional insecurity. Initially a mutual defence pact, the AES has evolved into a framework for deeper political and economic integration. In May 2024, AES states that it, together with Chad and Togo, conducted joint military exercises at the Tillia training centre in western Niger near Mali. These security developments have raised tensions and threaten political stability across the region.
The post-colonial era in West Africa has been shaped by France’s influence. The cultural and historical links between Francophone Africa and France remain strong. Regional sustainability requires maintaining a relationship with France, even as emerging military leaderships reject their former colonial masters. President Ouattara of Côte d’Ivoire could serve as a key interlocutor in this regard, according to South African analyst Arthur Mogorotsi.
Ouattara’s role extends beyond ECOWAS, particularly in opening opportunities for Côte d’Ivoire’s neighbours, including Guinea, Burkina Faso, and Mali. As a regional interlocutor with Europe, his leadership is crucial. While military governments in the region gain domestic popularity, they lack the capacity to independently build diplomatic and economic relations.
Since France’s withdrawal, groups such as the Russian Wagner Group have stepped in to provide protection, for example, to Ebrahim Traoré. This reliance could hinder long-term relations with France and other European countries.
Côte d’Ivoire also plays a critical role in managing migration pressures and maintaining regional economic integration. Its stability and growth attract workers and investors from neighbouring states, reinforcing its position as the region’s largest economic hub.
Political uncertainty in surrounding countries has highlighted Côte d’Ivoire’s importance as a stabilising influence, and Ouattara’s policies have promoted the country as a model of how economic growth can underpin political stability.
Furthermore, the country’s experience in handling electoral disputes through legal channels demonstrates the rule of law in action, setting a standard for the region.
By upholding institutional processes, Côte d’Ivoire strengthens both domestic governance and its international credibility, making it a key player in mediating regional conflicts and negotiations.
In conclusion, there is a regional race to influence new leadership under the guise of mentorship. Côte d’Ivoire, under President Ouattara, has the potential to play a stabilising and mediating role. Despite the withdrawal of some states from ECOWAS and the formation of AES, strategic interventions by Cote d’Ivoire could prevent future polarisation, secure regional interests, and safeguard prosperity for its neighbours.