Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanhayu (right) and former defence minister Yoav Gallant. Photo: Amos Ben-Gershom (GPO)/Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
President Cyril Ramaphosa is in the US after an invitation by President Donald Trump. The invitation coincides with one of the most important days in the political diary of South Africa. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana is tabling a much-awaited budget on 21 May after two unsuccessful attempts.
Ramaphosa couldn’t risk postponing the invitation. South Africa has been isolated by the US for, among other reasons, taking Israel to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) for genocide of Palestinians in Gaza. The invitation of Ramaphosa to the White House certainly marks a change of attitude towards South Africa by Trump. And judging by the recent events aimed at isolating Israel, the invitation may form part of the decoupling of relations between Trump and Netanyahu.
First, when Netanyahu visited the White House on 7 April — the first head of state to do so after Trump introduced global tariffs — Trump announced that the US was having direct negotiations with Iran to the bemusement of Netanyahu.
Making the surprise announcement while sitting alongside Netanyahu in the Oval Office, Trump said: “The discussions would be ramped up to high-level talks.”
Israel has always insisted that Iran was funding terror in the region and has since been lobbying the US and others to join a campaign to suppress and eventually attack Iran.
Although Trump has said the US was against Iran obtaining a nuclear weapon, he has insisted on reaching a deal with Iran.
When Trump assumed office in his first term, he cancelled the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) deal between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) with Iran.
Trump said: “The Iran Deal was one of the worst and most one-sided transactions the United States has ever entered into.”
The pressure to cancel the JCPOA came largely from Israel and to a lesser extent Saudi Arabia at the time. Saudi Arabia later engaged in rapprochement with Iran leaving Israel alone in its calls to sanction Iran and a possible attack of Iran.
Direct talks have been continuing between the US and Iran in Zurich. Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is heading the Iranian side and his counterpart, Wendy Sherman, is leading the US. These developments mean Israel will have to go it alone if it was to attack Iran at this point, something it was planning to do after Gaza.
What also came as a surprise to many, including Netanyahu, was the announcement by Trump that he had reached a deal with the Houthis; the US will stop bombing the Houthis in Yemen after the Houthis agreed to stop interrupting important shipping lanes in the Middle East — the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait.
Oman said it had mediated the ceasefire, marking a major shift in Houthi policy since the start of Israel’s war in Gaza. The deal between the Houthis and the US does not seem to include vessels to Israel.
The head of Yemen’s Houthi Supreme Political Council, Mahdi al-Mashat, said the group will continue to support Gaza and that such attacks would continue. “To all Zionists from now on, stay in shelters or leave to your countries immediately as your failed government will not be able to protect you after today,” Houthi-run Al Masirah TV cited him as saying.
Details of the deal between Trump and the Houthis are yet to emerge. Responding to concerns about direct talks between the Houthis and the US, the US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee retorted that “the US isn’t required to get permission from Israel to make some type of arrangement that would get the Houthis from firing on our ships”.
The deal with the Houthis was followed by yet another surprise announcement — the release of a US citizen, Edan Alexander, from Gaza. Alexander was freed on 12 May after having been captured by Hamas during its 7 October 2023 attack on Israel following direct negotiation between the US and Hamas.
The deal with the Houthis and the release of Alexander excluded Israel, leaving them isolated from regional political processes, something new in Israeli-US relations.
Although Netanyahu has visited the White House twice this year, Trump excluded Israel during his recent tour of the Middle East.
It could be argued that Trump did not want to conflate his visit to the region — which has been touted as a business tour — with the conflict in Gaza. Israel was hardly mentioned during the three-day tour while possible rapprochement between the US and Iran was mentioned over and over again.
The reception of Trump by the Gulf countries and financial pledges made in terms of investments to the US signals the significance of these countries to the economic prosperity of the US. Whereas Israel continues to benefit from the US in terms of aid ($3.8 billion this year), the Gulf states have pledged more than $700 billion to meet the economic objectives of the US without much aid coming into the Gulf region from the US.
According to the White House: “These deals lay the foundation for investment, innovation and good-paying US jobs, including in frontier technologies, aerospace, energy, and critical minerals.”
Last, perhaps the most significant development during Trump’s visit to the region was the announcement of lifting sanctions against Syria. Trump then accepted a meet-and-greet opportunity with the president of Syria, Ahmed al Sharaa the following day. These two decisions have further isolated Israel, which has been bombarding Syria notwithstanding Syria’s gesture to engage in peace and wanting to chart different relations with Israel.
The announcement by the United Kingdom, France and Canada that they would take “concrete actions”, including targeted sanctions, if Israel does not stop its renewed military offensive and continues to block aid from entering Gaza is significant. It could not have happened without a prior discussion between these countries and the US.
Trump is incensed by the disrespect Netanyahu has shown him over the past couple of days. Israel has relentlessly bombed Gaza, killing scores of Palestinians while Trump was in the region holding meetings with Gulf states. The actions of the US in the past couple of days, particularly extending olive branches to what have been enemies of Israel, is meant to drive a message to Netanyahu that the US is prepared to go it alone in terms of resolving the problem of the Middle East.
In the past the US tended to support Israel at all cost, but the tide seems to have changed. What has happened in recent days — whether in improving relations with Iran, lifting sanctions against Syria, achieving a truce with the Houthis and the invitation of Ramaphosa to the White House — suggests a new attitude from the US towards these countries, most of whom had previously earned the ire of the US because of Israel.
Thembisa Fakude is a senior research fellow at Africa Asia Dialogues and a director at the Mail & Guardian.