The maize imports are limited and exports to various destinations in the world continue. Photo: File
One thing that probably requires some clarification regarding South Africa’s maize trade at the moment is that we haven’t necessarily stopped imports. Yes, imports. But this does not mean we have shortages.
South Africa has one of the best agricultural seasons, albeit with some quality issues with white maize. The volumes are solid.
But the livestock and poultry producers in coastal regions of South Africa sometimes compare feed prices here at home and elsewhere in the world, and take advantage of relatively lower prices from other origins. But such opportunistic yellow maize imports happen rarely in seasons of abundance such as this one.
I am raising this issue because those who closely examine our maize trade data will notice that, to date in the 2025-26 marketing year (corresponding to the 2024-25 production season), South Africa has imported 77,768 tonnes of yellow maize from Argentina.
These are opportunistic imports and don’t necessarily mean that we experienced some shortages. The yellow maize is probably for animal feed production, as has been the case in the past.
As all this is happening, the exports from South Africa to the various destinations in the world also continue. For example, in the week of 5 September, South Africa exported 23,811 tonnes of maize, all to the Southern African region. This placed South Africa’s 2025-26 maize exports at 592,994 tonnes, out of the expected seasonal exports of 2.12 million tonnes.
The current marketing year only ends in April 2026. About 60% of South Africa’s maize exports so far are yellow maize.
The various regions South Africa has exported maize to this year, aside from the broader African continent, include Taiwan, Sri Lanka, Vietnam, South Korea and Venezuela. We will probably see continuous exports to these regions. We are not even at half of South Africa’s maize export season for the year (2.12 million tonnes).
The next couple of months will probably be quiet, particularly in the Southern Africa region, because some countries rely on the recently harvested domestic supplies for now.
We will probably see more robust export activity later in the year once farmers have completed the harvest and there is grain in the silos for export. This is also a time when we anticipate that countries such as Zimbabwe, which currently have an import ban on maize, will return to the market to buy some South African maize to fulfil their domestic needs.
South Africa has a robust maize production season. The 2024-25 maize harvest is estimated at 15.80 million tonnes, a 23% increase year-on-year, primarily as a result of expected annual yield improvements. This harvest is well above the long-term production levels in South Africa.
Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa’s yearly maize needs of about 12.00 million tonnes, implying that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
Therefore, when one hears about yellow maize imports, this is a vital context that one must remember. We are not experiencing any problems with domestic maize supplies or higher domestic prices.
Important: South Africa’s maize prices have declined notably over time as a result of ample domestic harvest. At the end of the week of 12 September 2025, South Africa’s white maize spot price was down roughly 28% from a year ago, trading under R4,000 a tonne. At the same time, South Africa’s yellow maize spot price was down by 7% from a year ago, trading at levels around R3,600 per tonne.
Therefore, the imports are primarily opportunistic, not because South Africa’s maize is expensive. We also expect them to be limited, as the domestic harvest is abundant.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa. He is the author of three book:, The Uncomfortable Truth About South Africa’s Agriculture (2025), A Country of Two Agricultures: The Disparities, The Challenges, The Solutions (2023) and Finding Common Ground: Land, Equity and Agriculture (2020).