US President Donald Trump. (File photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images)
A second Trump administration is likely to affect the complex fabric of Sino-American relations. Beijing apparently believes this could mean heightened tensions and renewed confrontations on multiple fronts. Sino-American relations, already frayed, may face an era marked by intensified scrutiny, because Trump’s rhetoric and policies often frame China as a strategic adversary rather than a partner in global stability.
During the recent US presidential campaign, there was an intense rivalry between Democrats and Republicans to be seen as “tough” on China. For many politicians on both sides, a “soft” stance on China meant nearly a career-ending label.
For China, this hints at potential for strategic adjustments in US policy, despite the Americans’ obvious trend toward toughness. Trump’s stance on China has been consistent in its bluntness: he casts China as the villain behind America’s economic woes, blaming US “weakness” for a perceived loss of manufacturing and blue-collar livelihoods.
In a renewed Trump era, Beijing could expect a focus on trade balances, economic rivalry and security cooperation — areas where Trump believes his brand of deal-making shines.
He’d probably not deal with topics such as human rights, because they don’t fit his transactional priorities. Instead, it’s a style of diplomacy focused on interests that directly affect the US. From China’s perspective, this values-free pragmatism may offer clarity but little in the way of partnership or nuanced understanding — another reminder of the narrow lens through which Trump views the world.
After Trump’s return to the world stage, President Xi Jinping extended a measured yet hopeful gesture, urging for a revival of diplomacy that recognises the delicate but essential link between the US and China. In his message, Xi struck a careful balance, acknowledging the stakes of Sino-US relations and advocating for a practical collaboration. “History has shown,” he remarked, “that a stable, sustainable China-US relationship aligns not only with our mutual interests but with those of the global community.”
Amid heightened tensions, particularly with the recent US and European tariff hikes on Chinese electric vehicles, Xi’s message was clear: China remains open to dialogue and cooperation. Xi signals a willingness to work with the Trump administration, to find common ground and to ease the strains of an escalating trade war — a nod to the potential for a pragmatic coexistence.
Xi proposed three guiding principles grounded in the notion that cooperation yields far greater benefits than confrontation for the world’s two largest economies. His proposal underscores the need for understanding each other’s strategic motivations, addressing sensitive issues such as Taiwan and the South China Sea responsibly, and leveraging shared strengths to drive economic growth.
With US-China relations at a low, Xi’s approach signals a pivot from the “show of strength” rhetoric that has dominated recent years, urging Washington to prioritise common interests over zero-sum strategies.
Notably, bilateral working groups between China and the US have continued, a testament to the resilience of diplomatic channels even amid strained ties. Through open communication, both nations could recognise that their roles as global stakeholders demand collaboration on issues such as climate change, technological innovation and global trade — areas where partnership could yield mutual gains rather than exacerbating rivalry.
The future of this relationship rests heavily on how Trump, a leader with a history of unpredictable foreign policy moves, will handle this. If Trump can embrace Xi’s call for mutual respect and strategic cooperation, the outcome could foster not just bilateral stability but a positive ripple effect on global economic and political landscapes.
Confrontation, as recent years have shown, yields no winners — only mutual setbacks. The US-China trade war, launched in 2018, inflicted palpable damage on the American economy without truly addressing its underlying concerns. Instead of yielding breakthroughs, tariffs have strained industries on both sides, denoting the limitations of a high-tariff, protectionist approach.
If the US seeks economic revitalisation, it would be wise to pursue cooperation over zero-sum tactics that deepen divisions. Trump, a self-described pragmatist, might consider that mutual economic growth and stability are more feasible than continued escalation.
While US and Chinese interests diverge on some fronts, these differences need not preclude a workable arrangement that serves both sides. After years of volatility, a recalibration that emphasises coexistence could move the US-China relationship forward in a constructive direction, one that benefits not just both nations, but the global community.
Dr Imran Khalid is a freelance columnist on international affairs based in Karachi, Pakistan.