/ 14 November 2024

Explosive Israel-Iran showdown fuels nuclear tension and regional power struggle

Iran Launches Missile Attack On Israel
Many rockets, fired from Iran, are seen over Jerusalem from Hebron, West Bank on October 01, 2024. The Israeli army announced that missiles were fired from Iran towards Israel and sirens were heard across the country, especially in Tel Aviv. (Photo by Wisam Hashlamoun/Anadolu via Getty Images)

In April, the shadow war between Israel and Iran escalated after an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus killed several staff, including two generals from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. In response, Iran launched 300 drones and missiles targeting Israel. Israel has since conducted frequent strikes on Hezbollah and Iranian-linked sites in Syria and Lebanon, intensifying pressure on the regional “axis of resistance”.

On 26 October 2024, Israel carried out a series of strikes on Iranian military bases, hitting 20 sites in a matter of hours. Four Iranian soldiers were killed, although the damage was reportedly minimal. According to Iran’s air defence headquarters, the “aggressive action was successfully intercepted and countered by the country’s integrated air defence system”.

Iran has asserted its right to “defend itself against external aggressive acts”, emphasising that such Israeli attacks are a threat to its sovereignty. This escalation has renewed debate over Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s fatwa banning nuclear weapons, a cornerstone of Iran’s nuclear policy and stance on non-proliferation. 

But Khamenei’s adviser, Kamal Kharrazi, has noted: “We have no decision to build a nuclear bomb, but should Iran’s existence be threatened, there will be no choice but to change our military doctrine.”

UN ambassador Amir Saeid Iravani has called for a measured response, stating that Iran’s retaliation should “punish the aggressor for its acts of terrorism and violations of Iran’s sovereignty”, while avoiding actions that could undermine the possibility of a ceasefire.

Iran’s policy emphasises peaceful nuclear technology, a nuclear weapons-free zone and adherence to Khamenei’s fatwa. This transparency contrasts with Israel’s policy, as it has not disclosed its nuclear capabilities. 

In 2023, former Israeli minister Amichai Eliyahu openly suggested that deploying nuclear weapons on Gaza was “an option”, later stating that Gaza had “no right to exist” and threatening those supporting Hamas and Palestine. Eliyahu was subsequently suspended from government indefinitely.

Eliyahu’s comments suggest that Israel possesses nuclear weapons and intends to use them. This raises the question: “Where are the international nuclear inspectors and the International Atomic Energy Agency?”

Hossein Amirabdollahian, Iranian foreign minister, stated that “The UN Security Council and the International Atomic Energy Agency must take immediate and uninterrupted action to disarm this barbaric and apartheid regime.”

The roots of Israel’s nuclear programme can be traced back to 1964, when France built a reactor for the country in the Negev Desert. By 1965, Israel had reportedly acquired nearly 100kg of weapons-grade uranium from the US and hijacked a Liberian ship in international waters to seize a significant shipment of yellowcake uranium. 

Evidence suggests that Israel has possessed nuclear weapons since the 1970s, with former prime minister Golda Meir contemplating the deployment of 13 nuclear bombs against Egypt and Syria, a move averted only after former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger orchestrated a substantial airlift of weapons to Israel to turn the tide of the conflict. 

Israel also maintained a decades-long nuclear collaboration with South Africa’s apartheid regime, which continued until the regime’s collapse in 1994.

Experts estimate that Israel possesses around 400 nuclear devices, including neutron bombs, thermonuclear weapons, tactical nuclear weapons and portable nuclear devices. It also has a comprehensive missile delivery system with a range of 11 500km, reaching well beyond Iran. In addition, Israel operates submarines capable of launching nuclear missiles and jet fighters designed to deliver nuclear payloads.

Despite presenting itself as a stabilising force in the Middle East, Israel has historically hindered regional nuclear development, ostensibly to maintain peace. But it has violated international law by bombing Iraq’s Osirak nuclear reactor, which was under construction with peaceful intentions, as confirmed by the Iraqi and French governments, and attacked a nuclear reactor under construction in Syria in 2007. 

Furthermore, Mossad has been implicated in the assassination of numerous scientists from Iraq, Egypt and Iran over the decades. To this day, Israel refuses to join the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and denies the International Atomic Energy Agency access to inspect its Dimona reactor.

Recently, Iran’s judiciary sentenced three people to death for allegedly spying for Israel and assisting in the 2020 assassination of Iran’s top nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, killed in an ambush near Tehran. 

The accused were said to have smuggled equipment into Iran to carry out the assassination under the pretence of transporting alcoholic beverages. Iran claimed a high-tech, satellite-controlled camera had tracked Fakhrizadeh’s movements. Israel has not confirmed or denied involvement.

Since the escalation that began on 7 October 2023, Israel has carried out continuous military operations against neighbouring countries, including the occupation of Palestinian and Lebanese territories, employing internationally banned weapons like phosphorus bombs and causing ongoing civilian casualties. 

The Israeli government’s policies are deeply rooted in ideologies that foster anti-Arab and anti-Muslim sentiment, further exacerbating tension within the region and supporting similar campaigns in the US and Europe, permeating educational and cultural narratives.

With this backdrop, Iran continues to support the “axis of resistance”, which includes Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis, who oppose Israeli influence in Lebanon, Gaza and Yemen, respectively.

Sõzarn Barday is an attorney based in South Africa and has a particular interest in human rights in the Middle East.