Statistics South Africa's recent data show that primary agriculture employment improved by 4% from the previous quarter to 935k jobs in the third quarter of 2024.
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The agricultural sector is closing one of the challenging seasons. The 2023-24 mid-summer drought led to poor summer grains and oilseed harvest. The livestock industry also struggled with animal diseases. These events weighed on the sector’s performance over the past quarters and will probably lead to a contraction in the sector’s fortunes this year.
Fortunately, we are seeing some improvement in the new 2024-25 season, which started last month. The rainfall prospects are positive, and this will support crop production and recovery of the grazing veld for farmers. Animal disease control is also showing progress, with most provinces having been cleared of the foot-and-mouth disease. This will support the red meat exports. The poultry industry, which also struggled with avian influenza, is recovering. These are all positive signs for a better agricultural performance in 2025.
Another critical indicator worth highlighting in the sector is employment. The number of jobs is also recovering in the sector. For example, Statistics South Africa’s recent data show that primary agriculture employment improved by 4% from the previous quarter to 935k jobs in the third quarter of 2024.
But, from an annual perspective, the performance is weak, down 2% year-on-year. Still, the primary agricultural employment of 935k people is well above the long-term jobs of 799k. The poor annual performance mirrors the harsh summer season we are leaving behind.
Some subsectors showing a quarterly increase in employment include livestock, horticulture, game hunting, and the production of organic fertilisers. Meanwhile, forestry and aquaculture recorded job losses from the year’s second quarter.
The Western Cape, Northern Cape, Eastern Cape, North West, Gauteng, and Limpopo showed significant quarterly job gains. The livestock and horticulture industry may have boosted the employment prospects in these provinces.
Meanwhile, the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal and Mpumalanga showed job losses in the year’s second quarter. The dominant types of agricultural activity in these provinces partly explain the job losses, especially in the Free State, primarily the grains and oilseed growing region.
Looking into 2025, if the agricultural sector generally improves, the agricultural employment conditions will also show a more robust recovery.
The typically subdued employment annually this year is not necessarily a structural matter but is reflective of the challenging production conditions farmers faced in the past few months. The fact that we are already seeing a quarterly recovery in employment speaks to the prospects of a better and possibly faster recovery in agricultural employment in 2025.
We have already started receiving the La Niña rains, and summer crop planting is under way in various regions of South Africa. The recovery in the grazing veld will take some time. Still, with the possibility of a La Niña to last through to February 2025, South Africa is likely to receive excellent rain for much of the season.
The rains will also help improve the dam levels, which are critical for irrigation. All of South Africa’s horticulture – fruit and vegetables – are produced under irrigation. Moreover, about a third of the field crops are produced under irrigation. Therefore, the improved dam levels will be positive for agricultural production and jobs.
Beyond these near-term events, the agricultural sector remains crucial for employment creation in rural communities.
But the sector must be on a positive growth path to sustain the current jobs and create new job opportunities. In the near term, we see various constraining factors requiring policymakers’ attention. These include resolving the port inefficiencies.
The sector also struggles with poor rail and road infrastructure and worsening municipal service delivery. This must be an area of focus for the government of national unity, along with addressing rising crime incidents in some areas of the country.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s Department of Agricultural Economics. His latest book is A Country of Two Agricultures.