The ANC’s historically legitimacy, the divided opposition, the proportional electorate system, and the lack of a broad-based party all contribute to its continued dominance Photo: File
The South African political arena is marked by a notable anomaly, specifically the opposition parties’ failure to secure a clear majority over the ANC.
This issue is of particular concern, as the ANC’s electoral support continues to decline, even in its traditional strongholds. In a discussion with a friend of mine about this matter, he insightfully pointed out that the dominant party in South Africa is the party of non-voters.
Although this variable holds significance in a broader context, it fails to provide insight into the underlying causal factors of the subject due to its limitation to consequences. This article aims to provide insight into the opposition parties’ inability to secure outright majorities in elections.
Notably, the party of `Kwame Nkrumah in Ghana, which assumed power after colonial rule, was voted out of power by a majority, as was the party of Julius Nyerere in Tanzania, both were former liberation movements. Additionally, the party of Kenneth Kaunda suffered the same fate in Zambia. The reason for their loss of power is that the public became disenchanted with them, but in South Africa, this has not led to the ANC losing political power completely.
Although it is difficult to spell out with exactness but here are few pointers. Firstly, the ANC’s continued dominance is the result of a multifaced interplay of historical, psychological, and systematic factors. The ANC’s status as a liberation movement that brought an end to apartheid continues strong emotions, making it challenging for newer parties to replicate its appeal, despite growing dissatisfaction with the service delivery and corruption. The absence of a unified challenger has a resulted in a fragmentated opposition, comprising multitude parties, including Democratic Alliance, Economic Freedom Fighters, uMkhonto Wesizwe, and numerous smaller parties collectively eroding the ANC’s vote share without a security a majority.
South Africa’s proportional representation system, which allocates seats based on the overall percentage of votes, makes it difficult for small shifts in the voter preference to translate into a majority for any single party, thereby necessitating coalition governments.
The ANC’s failure to secure a majority in the 2024 election led to the formation of a Government of National Unity with the Democratic Alliance and smaller parties, while the Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto Wesizwe declined to participate, perpuating a fragmented opposition. Analysts highlight the opposition parties’ inability to present a unified policy platform that resonates across the diverse electorate, leaving the gap that the ANC continues to fill.
In essence, the ANC’s historically legitimacy, the divided opposition, the proportional electorate system, and the lack of a broad-based party all contribute to its continued dominance.
In the lead-up to local government elections, it is going to be noteworthy to examine whether these issues will shape the dynamics of the contest between political parties and its impact on the ANC’s electoral support.
Mpumezo Ralo is a founder and Director of Lwazi Research Consulting (PTY) Ltd and serve in the Sector Steering Committee of the National Dialogue. The views expressed do not represent neither of the organisations.