Chris Gordon in Luanda and Howard Barrell in Cape Town
Angola’s return to arms, which appeared inevitable this week, could spill into neighbouring territories and destabilise the entire Southern African region.
In the line of fire are Zambia, which the Unita rebel movement continues to use as a rear supply base and which is bracing itself for cross-border incursions; and Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, which are believed to have offered their territory to the Angolan government as springboards to hit Unita from the south and east. In addition, tens of thousands of refugees are already on the move into Congo and other neighbours.
South Africa’s Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs Aziz Pahad told the Mail & Guardian this week “it will be very difficult to build an iron curtain around a full-scale war in Angola”. He said it would have a “spiralling effect that would impact on everyone in the region”.
The Angolan conflict has been internationalised by last year’s war in the former Zaire, now the Democratic Republic of Congo. Alliances were forged after the Angolan government supported Laurent Kabila’s march to Kinshasa, while Jonas Savimbi’s Unita troops fought side by side with former president Mobuto Sese Seko’s army. Elements of the Hutu extremist militias from Rwanda and Burundi are also believed to have found a safe haven in Savimbi’s territory.
The alliances were perpetuated in the overthrow of Unita sympathiser Pascal Lissouba in Congo (Brazzaville) last year, after intervention by the Angolan military to seal off Savimbi’s major supply route.
Though no major government counter-attack against Unita had started late this week, all indications are that Angola is now preparing for war. Television broadcasts each night summarise the failed peace process and Unita’s actions. People are wearily gathering their strength for the next onslaught. After four years of ineffective United Nations intervention, a third renewal of civil war now seems inevitable.
South African officials believe there are still influential voices in Angola, including President Jos Eduardo dos Santos, holding out against a full-scale military offensive. Final attempts at dialogue are continuing, a tired-looking Minister of Defence Pedro Sebastio told the Angolan media last weekend.
The Angolans are understood to be particularly mindful of the United States, which desperately wants to stave off war. Fresh from a policy debacle on the other end of the continent, where US allies Eritrea and Ethiopia are battling it out, war in Angola would be a crushing blow to US foreign policy in Africa. Once the main backers of Savimbi, the US has become the main guarantor of the peace process and have copious strategic interests, particularly in the fabulously rich off- shore oil deposits.
“We’ve lived with fluctuating levels of conflict and tension for some time,” an optimistic US official was quoted as saying. “This is not a level we haven’t seen.”
But forces on the ground appear to be moving in a direction that the international community is powerless to prevent. Dos Santos – who has evidently recovered considerably from his severe illness – last week described the political situation as “extremely grave” in an address to the nation before leaving the country for two weeks. He returns on August 7.
Dos Santos said there is a state of undeclared war on Unita’s part, as Unita continues to capture towns and villages on a daily basis. The final go-ahead for government retaliation is said to wait on the international community and on the president’s return next week.
Meanwhile, the Angolan army (the FAA)is being positioned to reinforce the diamond- rich Lundas in the north-east and the east and south of the country. The eastern Moxico region is logistically difficult for the army, say observers, but control of this region is crucial.
It is here where Unita has secured supply lines via Zambia by capturing the town of Luau in Moxico Province and nearby villages. This has caused much consternation for the authorities in Luanda.
It is understood that, at the time of the visit to Southern Africa by US Secretary of State MadeleineAlbright in December last year, the Angolan government was on the verge of unleashing a pre-emptive strike into Zambian territory because of its belief, which was not independently confirmed, that some Zambian officials, including then minister of defence Ben Mwila, were helping to re-arm Unita rebels.
After diplomatic interventions by Albright and others, Zambian President Frederick Chiluba moved Mwila from the defence portfolio to energy and water, and Angola called off the planned attack on Zambia. Mwila is understood to be related by marriage to Savimbi.
Angolan impatience with Zambia is rising, and a strike into that country is now a distinct possibility.
Pahad said if Zambia is knowingly allowing its territory to be used to help Unita, “it would be a very serious matter”. In that case, “we would have to find a way of dealing with it”. He thought it more likely, though, that the Lusaka government was finding it difficult to exert full control over western Zambia.
Zambian officials say allegations that their government is undermining the peace process are “very unfair”. Said one: “Peace in Angola will help Zambia.”
In Angola, a national day of mourning was called on Tuesday for the 105 people, mostly diamond diggers, killed in an attack near Cafunfo in the Cuango Valley, which the government blamed on Unita. However, it is not clear whether it was a Unita attack or a robbery.
Another attack last Saturday, on the road between Saurimo and Luena, two strategically important provincial capitals, killed 20 civilians.
Meanwhile, the government and Unita representatives have effectively withdrawn from the body overseeing the implementation of the peace process. Isias Samakuva, Unita representative, left Luanda for Bailondo weeks ago and General Antonio Dembo, Unita general secretary, has also left.
The Angolan weekly, Comercio Actualidade, reported last Friday that Unita’s newly installed Luanda offices were being stripped of all equipment, by night. Dembo opened the offices at the beginning of June, as proof of Unita’s good intentions.
Refusal to hand over these areas by the end of June led to UN sanctions on Unita’s economic activity and diamond trading, which the industry says is unenforceable; and the freezing of its international bank accounts.
Unita surrendered 70% of its diamond mines at the beginning of this year, pre-empting the sanctions. Unita’s present mining activities in the north and to the east of Cuango, and in at least two other areas, are still substantial.
On Tuesday, Unita captured the city of Caungula, controlling the road to the towns of Cuango and Luzamba, the site of much of Unita’s previous diamond-mining activity.
Unita military activity has been reported around Quibaxe, north-east of Luanda, and 300km to the south, on main roads to the capital. More troop movements are reported in the south of the country, and in the east.
A new pattern to the offensive is emerging after weeks of attacks on UN and NGO installations across the country. Unita is now testing FAA positions and trying to box in the diamond-producing regions of the Lundas.
The rebel movement is reported to have 28 arms stockpiles, which include assault rifles, submachine guns, rocket launchers, mortars, shells, cannons, missiles, anti- tank and anti-personnel mines, ammunition and explosives.
The complex web of supply lines to Unita, set up by elements within the South African military establishment in 1992, is still alive, and procures armaments from the Far East and Central Europe. Friendly African states – Togo is one recently cited – allow the transhipment of arms to Unita.
Other materials – small arms, spare parts, uniforms, field rations, trucks and fuel – are sourced locally, principally in South Africa, and are flown or trucked to Unita- held territory.
UN observers in Angola believe Savimbi has not been committed to the peace process. They believe he only ever sent young, inexperienced fighters to military assembly points set up under the Lusaka accords, all along holding back his crack troops. Even the greenhorn troops, however, have now deserted the assembly points.
The UN secretary general’s special envoy to Angola, Lakhdar Brahimi, a former Algerian foreign minister, was due to see Savimbi on Thursday. Pahad said: “The security council has sent a very strong message to Savimbi. So has the European Union. There is no way the international community and we in the SADC [Southern African Development Community] can countenance any attempt not to implement the Lusaka accords.”
Brahimi’s report is expected to reach UN Secretary General Kofi Annan over the weekend or early next week.
Pahad said the main thrust of South African policy is to “create a situation where full-scale war does not break out”. This means “getting Savimbi to stop sabotaging the process”.
A top-level South African security official said the government is “very worried that Angola will return to a war we thought was over”. The different arms of South Africa’s security and intelligence communities are apparently “seized with the issue”.
Pahad said South Africa is hoping for “dynamic contact with Annan on Angola”. The way forward had to be plotted under the rubric of the UN. He added South Africa had made its position clear to Savimbi. “There is an immediate need for Savimbi to commit himself to the accords,” he said.