Mock headstones are pictured at Glasgow Necropolis to symbolise the failure of the COP26 process, at Glasgow Cathedral. (Photo by PAUL ELLIS/AFP via Getty Images)
A stark new United Nations assessment has warned that there is no “credible pathway” in place to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C. The Emissions Gap report, which is produced by the United Nations Environment Programme (Unep), comes on the eve of major climate talks COP27 in Egypt. It found that the world is headed for 2.8°C of warming by the end of this century.
Despite intensifying climate impacts, the world is still falling short of the Paris climate goal, which seeks to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C, compared to pre-industrial levels.
Only an “urgent system-wide transformation” can avoid an “accelerating climate disaster”, said the report, which analyses the gap between promises and action.
‘Woefully inadequate’
Since COP26, there has been very limited progress in reducing the immense emissions gap for 2030 – the gap between the emissions reductions promised and the reductions needed to achieve the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.
The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — representing the commitments of each country to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to climate impacts — submitted this year shaves off only 0.5 gigatonnes of CO2 equivalent, less than 1% off projected global emissions in 2030. Progress made since COP26 has been “woefully inadequate”.
“To get on track for limiting warming to 1.5°C, global annual greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced by 45% compared with emissions projections under policies currently in place, in just eight years, and they must continue to decline rapidly after 2030, to avoid exhausting the limited remaining atmospheric carbon budget,” said the report. For 2°C, emissions must fall 30% by 2030.
Unconditional NDCs are estimated to give a 66% chance of limiting global warming to about 2.6°C by the end of the century. For conditional NDCs — those dependent on external support — this falls to 2.4°C. Policies currently in place, without further strengthening, suggest a 2.8°C hike, the report said.
While implementation of all NDCs, plus net-zero commitments made by an increasing number of countries, point to a 1.8°C increase, “this scenario is not credible, based on the discrepancy between current emissions, near-term NDC targets and long-term net-zero targets”.
Fighting chance
“G20 countries spew 80% of global emissions,” said UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. “Developed countries must lead in boosting their national climate plans.
“I recognise the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities in the light of national circumstances. But emerging economies must also do more if we are to have a fighting chance of keeping 1.5 alive. They need financial and technical support to do so.”
Just Transition Energy Partnerships are poised to help heavily coal-dependent emerging economies speed up their shift to renewables, he said. “These partnerships are moving ahead in India, Indonesia, South Africa and Vietnam. These coalitions of support must be expanded to even more countries.”
Immense task
The report noted how the climate crisis is part of a triple planetary crisis of climate change, pollution and biodiversity loss. “This year, the world is witnessing compounding energy, food and cost-of-living crises, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, all of which are causing immense human suffering.”
The task facing the world is immense, it said, “not just to set more ambitious targets, but also to deliver on all commitments made. This will require not just incremental sector-by-sector change, but wide-ranging, large-scale, rapid and systemic transformation.
“This will not be easy, given the many other pressures on policymakers at all levels. Climate action is imperative in all countries but must be achieved simultaneously with other United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.”
Next eight years crucial
To get on track to meet the Paris Agreement goal, the world needs to reduce greenhouse gases by unprecedented levels over the next eight years, the report said, warning how
incremental change is “no longer an option”.
“Broad-based economy-wide transformations are required to avoid closing the window of opportunity to limit global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. Every fraction of a degree matters.”
The transformation towards zero greenhouse emissions in the sectors of electricity supply, industry, transportation and buildings is underway, but they must be sped up.
“Of these four sectors, electricity supply is the most advanced, as the costs of renewable electricity have reduced dramatically. Still, major obstacles continue to exist, including ensuring that transformations are just and deliver energy access for people who are currently not served.
Key actions include avoiding locking in new fossil-fuel intensive infrastructure, enabling the transition by further advancing zero-carbon technologies, market structures and plans for a just transformation, as well as applying zero-emissions technologies and promoting behavioural change to sustain and deepen reductions to reach zero emissions.
Food systems
Food systems, which account for one-third of all emissions, can be reformed to “deliver rapid and lasting cuts”. Focus areas for food systems include demand-side dietary changes (including tackling food waste), protection of natural ecosystems, improvements in food production at the farm level and decarbonisation of food-supply chains.
Transformations in these four areas can reduce 2050 food-systems emissions to about a third of current levels “as opposed to emissions almost doubling if current practices remain in place”.
“Governments can facilitate transformation by reforming subsidies and tax schemes. The private sector can reduce food loss and waste, use renewable energy and develop novel foods that cut down carbon emissions. Individual citizens can change their lifestyles to consume food for environmental sustainability and carbon reduction.”
Sliding to ‘climate disaster’
A global transformation to a low-carbon economy is expected to require investments of at least $4-trillion to $6-trillion a year, said the report.
“Delivering such funding will require a transformation of the financial system and its structures and processes, engaging governments, central banks, commercial banks, institutional investors and other financial actors,” the report said.
Humanity is sliding from climate crisis to climate disaster, said Inger Andersen, the Unep executive director. “If we are serious about climate change, we need to kickstart a system-wide transformation, now. We need a root-and-branch redesign of the electricity sector, of the transport sector, of the building sector and of food systems. And we need to reform financial systems so that they can bankroll the transformations we cannot escape.”
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