Nobody trusts and nobody believes the Sona

Without real action, South Africa will face another five years of a load-shedding, rising unemployment, divestment, chillingly high crime levels, poor education outcomes and dysfunctional bankrupt municipalities and state entities.

President Cyril Ramaphosa has harped on the same issues for the past five years and has made many promises to take this country forward. This year, his seventh state of the nation address has not changed tack and centred on the same targets, which have only deteriorated since he took office.

In the past year, the country has battled through more than 200 days of load-shedding which has wiped out billions of rands from our economy. This problem has been long brewing and there have been several task teams Ramaphosa has promised would put a plan together. The plans are certainly there, but there is no action, no accountability and no political will.

Those who have defended Ramaphosa’s first term and his inability to rebuild the state will point to the fiscal constraints he has faced. Under his two finance ministers, first Tito Mboweni and then Enoch Godongwana, the state has continued to follow a fiscally conservative path in pursuit of a return to an “investment grade” rating, a path that has offered little room to rebuild capacity. 

Still we’d ask as a nation, who has he held accountable for the lacklustre performance of the state?

Sources close to the president have put out word that his pending cabinet reshuffle will be a restricted affair, with only minor changes. The fact that he consolidated his position at the ANC’s elective conference in December gave hope that he may for once be emboldened to sweep clean.

But if the speculation is true, and most ministers retain their portfolios, there is scant hope that Ramaphosa will be able to tackle the extensive to-do list on his desk with speed and success. It is not possible for the president to action the many plans using the same weak, tired team of politicians. 

For a start, there is the stark dilemma of Eskom and the energy portfolio. If Gwede Mantashe retains his position and assumes responsibility for the utility, we have every reason to suspect that the shift to renewable energy will be frustrated and along with it, the just energy transition, to which donors have pledged $8.5 billion.

With all the many solutions that will not be enacted, now the Ramaphosa-led ANC wants the self-created Eskom crisis to be declared a state of national disaster. But this escape route will not yield a functioning utility, and instead will have far-reaching consequences for the economy and ordinary citizens. 

This disaster is directly connected to people’s livelihoods and whether they can retain their jobs or not, therefore adding to the more than 30% unemployment rate. 

South Africa now faces a bleak economic outlook, with the country’s energy crisis threatening to cut growth to below 1% this year. At that rate, it is impossible to bring the ultra-high unemployment levels down and social upheaval is therefore inevitable.

Exactly one year ago, the president promised a new social compact which would see the light within a hundred days. That none has materialised yet is evidence of the deep mistrust between the state, the private sector and labour.

Ramaphosa’s “Thuma Mina” themed presidency has been centred on the belief that he would bring along his supporters in the private sector and help rebuild confidence in the South African project that had gone off the rails in the “nine wasted years” of his predecessor, Jacob Zuma. 

The private sector, which Ramaphosa has put on a pedestal throughout his time in office, has not come to the aid of its man in the form of new capital commitments to the economy that would slash unemployment.

In fact, what was evident in the country’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic was that  corporations such as beer-maker AB Inbev became rather irritated with the response of Ramaphosa’s administration, threatening to halt all capital spending. 

It was the beginning of the now antagonistic relationship between Ramaphosa’s administration and business, especially around the issue of reforms in the energy market which have fed into the more than 200 days of load-shedding we are all becoming used to as a way of life now.

Any momentum in Ramaphosa’s “Thuma Mina” drive has essentially run aground because of this hostile relationship. 

But history has long taught us that the private sector is a poor substitute for a robust and well functioning public sector, which is impossible to achieve as long as the government remains reticent about investing in infrastructure and in people.

What should have remained his focus from day one in office was rebuilding the capacity of the state and not looking for miracles from a private sector that only invests where the state builds highways and delivers services. 

So if Ramaphosa and his two-hour speech have failed to ignite hope among citizens for his second term, what happens next? The question belongs to each and every one of us. Because we all deal with the soaring cost of living in our beautiful land, the fear of walking in our crime-infested streets alone, the choice between accessing subpar state facilities or paying more for private education, healthcare and even postal services. 

South Africans are tired of complaining about the refuse that has not been collected for days, months or even years. Tired of living in the dark and being forced to close the small companies they established. Tired of being unemployed and paying for services neither they nor anyone else can access consistently.

Very few trust or believe anything will come out of Ramaphosa’s address. His ineptitude and that of both his political allies and foes affects us all. We have to begin engaging in our democracy from community level all the way to pushing for legislative changes, to ensure we have the best representatives to take the action that is needed to change our economy and steering us into the new dawn we want.

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