Electricity Minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa. (Leon Sadiki/Getty Images)
South Africans should brace themselves for one of the country’s darkest winters after the electricity minister, Kgosientsho Ramokgopa, fresh from a tour of Eskom’s decrepit power stations, warned the cabinet of a brutal load-shedding schedule that is likely to remain at stage eight for up to 152 consecutive days.
According to Eskom, which provides more than 90% of electricity in the country, stage eight translates into more than half a day of load-shedding.
A battle is likely in the ANC’s national executive committee (NEC) meeting over the weekend after the bleak outlook Ramokgopa presented to his cabinet peers. This could lead to the country dipping into yet another recession and raise already heightened political temperatures ahead of the 2024 polls.
According to cabinet insiders, the electricity minister, just under 50 days into his job, appealed to the cabinet for powers to aid him in doing his job as the government prepares for what would be an unprecedented level of load-shedding.
They said Ramokgopa warned that the country would remain at stage eight because an 18 000 megawatt breakdown was anticipated from June and August. Last July, Eskom lost 18 000MW of generating capacity when units broke down and workers went on unprotected strikes.
An Eskom board member told the Mail & Guardian that the utility has been losing 16 000MW to 22 000MW in summer since last year.
Ramokgopa’s bleak view of what winter is set to look like comes at a time when the power utility is reviewing its schedules to increase load-shedding from stage eight to stage 16. Many municipalities have made contingency plans to protect themselves from higher stages of load-shedding, which include asking for help from the police and procuring emergency backup systems.
The Democratic Alliance’s Kevin Mileham said the party had been getting ready for grid collapse by procuring emergency supply, with the Western Cape planning to roll out emergency load-shedding kits to 100 000 indigent households at a cost of R60 million.
Sources in the South African Local Government Association said their representatives in the department of energy have warned that municipalities should get ready for the worst. “We are not aware of a blackout but we are preparing for longer outages and plead with the government to protect us during these times because crime will increase. We cannot assure people that we are certain that the grid might not collapse,” they said.
Sources in Eskom confirmed that the utility has been implementing stage seven and eight for the past week, because of increased demand. They said a worrisome trend is unfolding that makes stage 10 a possibility in this year’s winter.
“At this point we fear that the winter will exacerbate the situation at Eskom’s power plants, which are sensitive to the weather. We will need to burn more diesel and hope the systems don’t die on us.”
Energy expert Lungile Mashele has argued that although the systems seem to be “tankering” load-shedding is a contingency plan to prevent the grid from collapsing.
The latest report by the public enterprises department signalled that Eskom was losing 2 000MW on average. The power utility has also shed 2 000 of its critical engineers, exacerbating the situation.
Six units are tripping daily, resulting in a loss of 36 000 megawatts, the Eskom source said.
An Eskom executive who spoke to the M&G said the deterioration of the power plants means the power energy availability factor was now at 65%, adding that there was no appreciation from other Eskom executives on how to avert the slide.
Econometrix chief economist Azar Jammine said the nation had hit stage eight during peak summer months, when the demand for power was low, and that we should expect the worst during peak winter months when the demand is much higher.
During this week’s cabinet meeting, Ramokgopa is said to have requested that he be given powers to open bid windows to enable more power generation to fend off the worst forecasts. He is said to have also proposed that his ministry become Eskom’s main shareholder, replacing Pravin Gordhan’s public enterprises department.
This was thwarted by Energy Minister Gwede Mantashe and Gordhan, who sent him packing with his tail between his legs.
The M&G has previously reported that the two ministers took turns with their allies in cabinet calling for Ramokgopa to rather focus his efforts in his own portfolio, and that he should take his proposal to extend the life of Eskom’s coal-fired power stations to the National Energy Crisis Committee.
Ramokgopa is said to have emphasised that he was without a legal mandate to continue his work, urging President Cyril Ramaphosa to speedily resolve the issue.
Mantashe’s hardened attitude is believed to be linked to the influence over contracts linked to electricity. His detractors argue that Mantashe is holding on to energy because of his vast interest in the industry and his power to control the bid windows.
Mantashe is in charge of signing energy contracts with the independent power producers and has control over which bidders receive the tendered projects.
Last week Gordhan contradicted Ramokgopa over the just energy transition by saying the plan to decommission Eskom’s old plants was still on track.
“The Eskom just energy transition strategy recognises the financial prudence of investing limited capital budgets towards establishing new generating capacity from renewables, rather than investing in aged coal plants to extend their lives or to make them environmentally compliant. Many coal plants are noncompliant with national minimum emission standards requirements,” Gordhan said.
Battles in the cabinet come after Mantashe gave Ramaphosa an ultimatum last week to fire him should the president go ahead with the plan to remove some of his policy powers.
Mantashe, who is also a chairperson of the ANC, is said to be rallying his troops to fight any plans to remove his powers.
NEC members in Mantashe’s camp, who earlier spoke to the M&G, viewed Ramaphosa’s proposal as a declaration of war.
A fallout between the two over the electricity ministry could jeopardise their alliance in the ANC going into next year’s elections.
Another top ANC leader said Mantashe was furious enough to mention his dissatisfaction during a meeting held on Tuesday with former president Thabo Mbeki, the M&G previously reported.
“Mantashe said he was a miner by profession, with … better things to do if people did not value his role after he had put his head on the block for them,” said the top ANC leader.
In spite of his overwhelming win at Nasrec in December, Ramaphosa remains in a vulnerable position because of the Phala Phala scandal.
While Ramaphosa has dodged the legal battle with the public protector and parliament, his fate in the ANC remains up in the air.
Last year, the integrity commission deadlocked over a draft report recommending that Ramaphosa take a leave of absence while the investigation into the Phala Phala scandal is concluded.
The report, compiled by the then commission chairperson George Mashamba, recommended that Ramaphosa go on leave of absence as the cause of an impasse because the commission has been unable to ratify it.
Ramaphosa has appeared twice before the commission about the theft at his game farm, the last session being in September last year. The report was meant to be tabled during the Nasrec conference but never formally saw the light of day.
Shortly after the conference, newly elected secretary general Fikile Mbalula dismissed queries from members of the media on the matter, saying only that the report would be discussed when necessary.
Mantashe, who chairs NEC meetings, has the powers to resuscitate the debate internally.