South Africa’s International Relations Minister Naledi Pandor has called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza.. (Rodger Bosch/AFP)
South Africa is likely to advocate for Egypt to be included in Brics, which is expected to continue in August when the group’s five heads of state meet for an annual summit, insiders said.
The Brics group, made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, has been discussing whether it should allow other countries from the global south to join. To date, 22 countries have formally applied to become members while an equal number has informally made their interest known, Brics South African sherpa — who facilitates preparations for the summit — Anil Sooklal confirmed last week.
Egypt, Algeria, Mozambique and Nigeria are some of the African countries that have shown interest. Insiders privy to the discussions say Egypt, in terms of its strategic location, is receiving serious consideration for South Africa’s endorsement to join the group.
Egypt’s GDP, population size and its strategic location on the Mediterranean and the Suez Canal makes it an attractive partner, one insider said.
During a meeting of Brics foreign ministers in June, the modalities, principles and criteria for the expansion of Brics presented by the sherpas were rejected. The ministers mandated the forum to hold a special meeting to rework the presentation. These were handed over to the foreign ministers to review before the August summit, Sooklal said.
Sources told the Mail & Guardian that part of the debate on the guiding principles for inclusion is about adherence to human rights and media freedom. Other principles to be discussed will be the criteria for qualification, which may include a GDP threshold and trade with the bloc’s members, one insider said.
“Egypt fits this criteria to the T. If we look at where it is positioned, its imports and exports and its links to the Arab nations, it becomes strategically located. Normative framework will be informed by economic criteria,” they said.
“For instance, how this expansion increases trading and markets, if you have five countries that join. Economic imperative is essential; we must look at the regional market, trade and logistics ports, massive demographic profile, consumer markets questions, when we consider who can join and who cannot.”
Another insider said there is also a discussion for the core Brics group to remain as the five permanent partners, with those to be included later becoming non-permanent members. South Africa, Russia and China have expressed a keen interest in expanding the grouping, while India and Brazil are said to be less enthusiastic.
South Africa’s eagerness to include African countries has also raised scepticism in some corners of the ruling ANC and the country’s diplomatic community.
Insiders who previously spoke to the M&G said South Africa could lose its strategic influence should it vote for countries such as Egypt and Nigeria to join Brics. These two countries have bigger GDPs and larger populations, with South Africa coming in third.
Denying any hesitance by South Africa to include some of its African counterparts in the bloc, Sooklal said the government has been agitating for the African Union to become a permanent member of the G20.
“If we are lobbying for the AU to join G20, why should we feel pressure, if other countries — should we expand Brics — want to be part of the bloc?” he said.
“We would welcome that. The question is, does expansion add value to the organisation or does it devalue the organisation and take away from what the organisation has worked for over a period of time? I think every organisation, including the European Union, when they were expanding, took this into consideration.”
Sooklal said there is maturity in the way Brics leaders interact with each other and the way they consent to decisions about expansion. He added that being a part of the group had benefited South Africa’s economy because its trade with the bloc had grown from R340 billion in 2013 to R800 billion in 2022.
“That figure rivals our total trade with the European Union,” he said.
Another guiding principle that will be sharply debated is whether there will be a standard line of voting and supporting resolutions at global governance institutions, an insider said.
Foreign policy analyst Sanusha Naidu said the debate about voting patterns was important for the global south to cement its place in global institutions such as the United Nations Security Council.
“For the longest time China and India have abstained on a particular resolution,” Naidu said.
“The question now becomes, to what extent will there be a consensus on how you vote, and those voting patterns in global governance institutions are critical because it’s about the reform agenda as well as global governance architecture, because a lot of this architecture has excluded the voice and agency of countries in the global south.”
Naidu added that South Africa and its partners in Brics must define their coordination, “because you can’t expand if you don’t have a clear coherent institutional roadmap for yourself”.
She said South Africa should also strengthen its industrial policy for countries such as Egypt to enable trade should certain markets close because of geopolitical considerations.
“You may not want to do business with Egypt in terms of how it has dealt with internal political issues; countries are looking at it because it’s strategically placed on the Suez Canal. Even if an expanded Brics may pose difficulty for South Africa in terms of other countries being elevated in the continent and having a greater sense of access because you are no longer the interlocker of the Africa’s outreach process, South Africa needs to start thinking much more strategically in terms of how this expansion can work for it.”
Speaking at the Brics political dialogue last week, President Cyril Ramaphosa said the many bilateral and multilateral settings on the expansion required “closer scrutiny and understanding”.
“Therefore the show [of] interest [in] Brics should also take full account of the initiatives that are already in place. Indeed, we should avoid unnecessary duplications and make sure that we derive efficiencies wherever we find ourselves,” he said.
This was the first time Ramaphosa had placed doubt on South Africa’s support of the expansion.
Naidu said Brics must first define the unifying, coordinated and institutionalising of its relationship before finding a staggered approach towards expansion.
“There is currently confusion by those showing interest in what the criteria for membership is. The five core members will have to sit down and sift through what is applicable and consensual to all of them.”
South Africa must also consider revitalising its strategic orientation in the foreign policy domain for national interest to speak to its strategic imperative and orientation in foreign policy, Naidu added.